Afghan security forces in Kunduz. Reuters.
The Taliban has taken the city center of Kunduz in Afghanistan, which is their biggest victory in years. Reuters. For the first time since 2001 the Afghan military has abandoned a provincial capital. Insurgents raised their flag and released hundreds of prisoners from the local prison. The battle for Kunduz was the second attack in the city this year and was wildly successful. The attack managed to capture both the police headquarters and the governor's compound and are now threatening the airport. The majority of the city is now under control of the Taliban. Afghan forces offered up an excuse for their failure, claiming they did not want to battle in the city due to the harm it would cause civilian casualties. The Taliban appeared to show concern for civilian casualties as well, urging residents to stay inside and avoid the fighting. Afghan forces did not receive any support from NATO forces, such as airstrikes.
My Comment:
This is a huge defeat for the Afghan security forces. They haven't lost a provincial capital since 2001. Think about that for a second. The Afghan war has raged since then, with some of the heaviest fighting happening in the past few years. But through all that time the Afghan security forces, with their NATO allies, never lost a capital like this. That is just insane to me. It really goes to show how much the Taliban have bounced back.
It seems clear to me that the Afghan security forces can not stand on their own. They need support from other nations but nobody is willing to do so anymore. The United States role has been changed. Instead of active combat, the few forces we have left in the country are focused on training. But training can only do so much. The Afghan forces have plenty of arms, training and men, they just don't have the same will to fight that the Taliban have. Part of that is due to the extreme casualties they have taken in the past few years, but at some point they need to shape up and fight.
I don't see how the Afghans take back this city. Their main advantage is artillery and the possibility of airstrikes. Neither of those things are as effective in a major city and they carry a huge risk of casualties. To take back the city they will have to fight in an urban environment, well more urban then most of Afghanistan. As we have learned in Iraq and Syria, urban fights are brutal, high casualty affairs. I just don't see the Afghan security forces as being able to undertake such an operation while at the same time absorbing the high casualties they are likely to sustain. For the time being I am guessing that Kunduz will remain in Taliban hands.
As for the Taliban, they have had quite a bit of success lately. Fears that they would fall apart with the revelation that their leader, Mullah Omar, had died were obviously premature. Without NATO to give Afghanistan forces some backbone, the Taliban has been pushing them around. This battle was a major victory for the Taliban, but is in no way the only one they have had lately.
Since NATO forces withdrew from Afghanistan, the country has fallen apart. Not that it was exactly stable before NATO left, but things are certainly worse now. The Taliban are on the march and they are no longer the only game in town anymore. ISIS has tried to make a foothold in the country as well. Though they have only met with limited success, the fact that they are active in the country at all is a bad sign.
So was leaving Afghanistan a mistake? It's clear that Afghanistan is having a very hard time standing on their own. And there is a very good chance that other cities could fall to the Taliban. But at some point we had to give up the fight. We had been at war for more then a decade in Afghanistan and suffered many casualties. Nation building wasn't working, and our main mission, to destroy al-Qaeda in the country, was largely accomplished. At this point Afghanistan needs to win their own battles. We just can't fight their battles for them anymore.
No comments:
Post a Comment