Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri calls for more Jihadi unity, lone wolf attacks on the west. Reuters.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri. Reuters.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has released a new audio recording calling for more cooperation between Jihadists and more "lone wolf" attacks in the west. Reuters. Zawahri called for more attacks like the Boston marathon bombing and the Charlie Hebdo attacks. He also called for Jihadists to strike at homes and cities throughout the west but specifically mentioned attacks on America. Zawahri also requested more cooperation between al-Qaeda and other Jihadi groups. While still claiming that ISIS's caliphate is illegitimate, he claimed to wish that all groups could work together in Syria. A new, independent sharia court could be formed to mediate disputes between ISIS and al-Qaeda. 

My Comment:

These calls for lone wolf attacks are nothing new. Indeed, Zawahri and ISIS have called for them in the past. These lone wolf attacks have a mixed record for success. Many times, the terrorists who try don't have the weapons or explosives to actually be effective. There have been attacks with hatchets or knives that failed with only a few people hurt. And who can forget the attack on a free speech event in Texas? Two guys with guns opened fire, slightly wounding a guard, and then got lit up by off duty cops. 

And that's the problem with these attacks. For an effective terror attack you need most of the following things:

-weapons or explosives

-a really good plan

-money

-a soft target

-luck 

You can have a successful attack with a few of those things missing but I am guessing that the vast majority of these lone wolf attackers won't have more then one or two. Most of these attackers will accomplish very little and die pointlessly. Which, honestly, is probably the best outcome.

In America it is even more difficult to pull off a terror attacks. We don't have the underground gun market that Europe has. Sure legal guns are easy to come by but you simply can't get fully automatic weapons here. Even where they are legal the laws for them are so extreme that even most citizens in good standing can't get one without it costing an arm and leg, let alone a Jihadist. And the large number of legal guns and concealed carry laws mean that there are few places that are "soft" targets. Our cops are well armed and trigger happy. In short I don't worry too much about the threat from lone wolves. They may try to pull off attacks but I just don't see them succeeding all that often. It's much easier in Europe though...  

The other development in this story is much more disturbing. ISIS and al-Qaeda have had a long and bitter feud that often results in actual warfare. Al-Qaeda's al-Nusra front spends more time fighting against ISIS then is really good for either side. If ISIS and al-Nusra could put aside their differences they would have a much stronger chance of overtaking Syria then they would alone. 

I don't see it happening on a large scale. ISIS and al-Nusra occasionally work together but the truth of the matter is that they don't really operate in the same areas. ISIS has most of their forces in the east, while al-Nusra is located mostly in the northwest. And they have other rebel groups and the regime in between them. So even if they do decide to team up, not much on the ground would change for the time being. 

Still, I would rather have ISIS and al-Nusra be hated enemies instead of allies of convenience. My hope is that nothing comes of this call from Zawahri. Given how strong ISIS is in comparison to al-Qaeda they may reject this call out of hand. After all, ISIS doesn't seem to "do" allies. They have groups that have sworn allegiance to them and enemies. And as long as al-Qaeda decides to remain independent from ISIS, they will be enemies.