America moves to block Russia's expansion into Syria. New York Times.

Russian Defense Minster Sergey Lavrov speaks to John Kerry via phone. New York Times/European Pressphoto Agency.

America has made moves to block Russia's expansion into Syria. New York Times. Greece and Bulgaria has agreed to block Russian transport planes from their airspace to prevent them from reaching Syria. Greece has not blocked all flights from Russia, despite American demands. Rumors from Syria have Russia moving housing for up to 1,000 troops and may be creating an airbase. Two Russian Condor transport planes arrived in the coastal city of Latakia along with another transport plane. There has also been reports that Spentsnaz special forces have been sighted in Syria. Russia claims the troop movements are for humanitarian reasons. It is thought that Russia is trying to bolster the government of Assad or at the very least allowing for a rump state to exist after the capital of Damascus falls. Russia claims to be confused about the United States anger about the issue since Russia has long provided weapons for Syria. 

My Comment:

It seems even more clear that Russia is moving in to Syria. I think the most likely outcome is for an airbase in Syria and some Russian advisers is Syrian military units. The airstrikes will not just be targeting ISIS, but al-Nusra, other Jihadi groups, and critically, secular rebels as well. These troops won't be enough to win the Syrian war for Assad. But it might be enough for him to hold onto a rump state.

So why is Russia doing this? Quite a few reasons. The first obvious one is that they have a major naval base in Syria, which is their most important one in the Mediterranean. In order to support a blue water navy, Russia desperate needs a friendly port of call in the Mediterranean, so it's not surprising that they want to keep Syria afloat.   

Russia also wants to keep their allies in the region. Obviously Syria is one of them but they aren't the only one. Iran is also a major ally. As Shia Muslims, they have a vested interest in keeping Assad's Alawite's alive and the counter Sunni expansion in the region. Iran has already deployed troops and their Hezbollah pawns to fight in Syria so I am guessing that they wanted Russia to contribute more as well. Doing so will strengthen the allience between Iran and Russia.

One wonders how this will play in Russia. Obviously Putin still has a lot of support and the people largely supported the war in the Ukraine. But I don't think anyone there is all that interested in fighting for Syria. After all, the threat of Islamic terrorism, though it exists, is different in Russia. Sure, Russia has had some rather severe problems with terrorism, but almost all of that terrorism has been from Chechens. As far as I know, few, if any, terror attacks in Russia have been linked to ISIS or al-Qaeda. I don't think that threat, and the obvious strategic interests Russia has in the region, will be enough to win over the Russian people to this new military adventure. 

Of course, Russia's involvement in Syria greatly complicates America's goals there. Both sides want to fight ISIS, but other then that there is little agreement of who should be in charge in Syria. Russia wants Assad to win but America wants the secular rebels, the few that are left, to win. America has sent in airstrikes in support of these rebels and the Kurds as well, but one wonders what happens when Assad's forces battle the rebels supported by America. 

The worst case scenario is some kind of confrontation between Russia and America where soldiers or airmen from one side or the other dies. Perhaps it would be an air battle after planes get to close. Or an airstrike could kill advisers on the ground. Either way it could expand the Syrian conflict into a larger international incident. I am hoping that both sides will go to great lengths to avoid any accidents and if one happens that both sides understand that it wasn't on purpose.

My guess is this is why the United States is re-evaluating its efforts in Syria. Obama's plan to train rebels, always a disaster, has pretty much ended. The few troops trained by the program have been withdrawn and it is unclear what America will do now. It seems like we don't have many options to train troops on the ground. My guess is that America will focus exclusively on targeting ISIS and al-Qaeda while supporting the Kurds. The pipe dream of supporting secular rebels, never a realistic goal in the first place, is over.