The United States is changing it's plans in Europe as war games show Russia winning most of the time. Foreign Policy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Foreign Policy/AFP

The United States is updating it's war plans against Russia after the Ukraine conflict and war games that show Russia winning any conflict in Eastern Europe. Foreign Policy. After the fall of the Soviet Union, plans against a war against Russia have fallen to the wayside. The Ukraine conflict, and to a lesser extent, the 2008 Georgia War, have forced the Pentagon to dust off those plans and see what works. The news is not good as Rand cooperation war games show the Russians winning every time. The games, centered around Russia's new "hybrid warfare" strategy, which was deployed against Ukraine, In that war, Russia used deniable assets, political pressure, riots, demonstrations and capped with local troops seizing government buildings to achieve their goals. Even giving NATO advantages that they might not have in the real world, such as having all troops deployed in Eastern Europe, failed to end the war in a decisive victory for the west. The game was run 16 different times with 8 different teams and the result was always the same.

My Comment:

First, I have to say, how do I get a job war gaming professionally? It sounds like fun... 

These results are not surprising to me at all. Our military has long since turned its focus away from fighting Russia in Europe. For the past 15 years or so, our military has focused on the Middle East. Instead of Russian tank columns, we are focused on ISIS and al-Qaeda. Given that change of focus, it isn't surprising that we would be losing these war games. 

So is a war in the Baltic possible? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think so. Russia does not want to fight NATO and Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are all in NATO. They aren't powerful in themselves but if they were attacked directly, Russia would face the wrath of every other NATO country. But that rule only applies to an actual attack. Russia is now too smart to do so. 

Russia's "hybrid warfare" doesn't actually seem to be anything all that new. It's just fostering revolt and then supplying the rebels with weapons, supplies and intelligence. That's an old had for pretty much everyone these days. I don't see it being any different then what happened in the Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan conflicts. It worked fairly effectively in Ukraine but one has to remember that Ukraine didn't get much in the way of military support during the conflict. Any attack on the Baltic countries would be a different story. 

But would Russia win a war in the Baltic? My guess is that they probably would. Russia has a lot more troops then we have in the area, and the local armies are not anywhere near as powerful. Any fight would need U.S. troops to give some backbone to the locals, and even then we would be outnumbered. Plus it is very likely that Russia would use unconventional tactics as well. Cyber warfare, civil unrest and perhaps even tactical nukes could be deployed, 

There is also the fact that Russia owns an exclave called the Kaliningrad Oblast. This piece of land, cut off from the rest of Russia, presents a major headache for NATO. Not only could Russia use it as a base to create a two front war against the Baltic states, they can also use the territory as a major surface to air missile station. With Kaliningrad existing, any air campaign in the area would have major difficulties until their SAM stations are air forces were destroyed. 

Of course there is always a chance that a war between NATO and Russia would go nuclear. If that is the case then none of this matters since Western civilization would be largely destroyed. That alone makes me think that any war would be extremely unlikely. Vladimir Putin is many things but he is not insane. He wants to live, just like anyone else and he probably knows that if he were to declare war against the Baltic states, his life could very well be forfeit. 

Another question I always have is why we let these countries into NATO in the first place. The only reason we care about what happens to them, from a purely realpolitik point of view, is because they are in NATO. Sure, they helped us in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they should be commended for it, but let's face it, they aren't that great of allies. And taking them as allies only infuriated Russia. At this point it's too late to do anything about it, but in my humble opinion, the Baltic States aren't worth going to war over. 

Since we are committed to protecting the Baltic States, how do we protect them? I don't think this is a military question anymore. We can't win anything other then a Pyrrhic victory in a military conflict. I think the answer is diplomacy. One of the reasons why Russia is interested in the Baltic states is the large number of Russian speakers in the country. Those people are not treated that well. If we could ensure that they were treated as well as anyone else in the Baltic, we would remove the main reason for Russia to go to war. 

We will also be served by a better president. It's true that Putin and Obama hate each other and will not work with each other on anything. I think Putin, correctly, believes that Obama is spineless and Putin has gotten the better of Obama again and again. Putin got what he wanted in Syria twice, got what he wanted in Ukraine and is getting his way in Iran. Perhaps the next president, whoever it may be, may be more respected by Putin. To the point that he would either be to afraid to act or no longer have any reason to fight with the United States. What we need is a born diplomat or a complete madman as president. Until then, I expect U.S./Russia relations to remain in the toilet. 

We could also spend more money on better weapons systems. I am sure some of you are screaming at your screens saying we waste enough money on things like the F-35 and the littoral combat ships. I agree. We should instead be buying new weapons that actually work that can counter Russia's near parity in air power and excellent air defense capabilities. Given how our military procurement work in this country, I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening anytime soon...