Rumors of Russian troops in Syria. The Daily Beast.

A possible Russian armored vehicle. The Daily Beast.

There are rumors coming out of Syria, some of which are verifiable, that Russia is sending combat troops to the country. The Daily Beast.  One rumor has Russian fighter jets flying bombing missions along side their Syrian government allies. The American government has been unusually silent about these reports. Furthermore, a Russian Ship, the Nikolia Filchenkov, was seen entering the Bosphorus Straits with a large amount of military equipment, including armored vehicles, visible on the deck. In Syria itself, images of a BTR-82A have been discovered. The BTR-82A is a new APC that has not been deployed outside of Russia since it first entered service in 2013. Syrian media showed the vehicle fighting and Russian voices were clearly heard in the background. Russia has had advisers in Syria since the start of the conflict but the rumors are now that they are deploying ground troops and air forces. Russia is widely seen as trying to bail out their ally, Syria, and restart the peace process there. 

My Comment:

Lot's of speculation in this article from the Daily Beast and very little in the way of verified facts. It has been known for a long time that Russia has had advisers in Syria and have sent them a large amount of weapons, but that's a long way from actually being involved in combat. A cargo ship and a few APC's does not necessarily mean that Russia is fighting there, at least not yet and even if they are, not in numbers enough to actually matter. 

Still, there is a circumstantial case for Russia increasing their role in Syria. I don't think any of it is iron clad but taken together it shows that at the very least Russia is increasing their commitment in Syria. A lot of the rumors seem to indicate that Russia will send in ground and air forces to Syria. I think that is at the very least, plausible. 

Why would they do so? Well for one, Syria is a major ally. The Russians have a major naval base in Syria and if the country were to fall they would lose it. Their other major ally in the region, Iran, also has a vested interest in the country and by backing the Syrian regime, the Russians are also helping Iran. Also, like every country with a minority Muslim population, Russia is very interested in fighting ISIS in Syria before they have to fight them in Russia. I've already heard rumors that ISIS is active in the Caucuses now, so it makes sense for Russia to want to fight ISIS in their homeland instead of their backyards. 

So how far are the Russians willing to go? I'd say that an airbase is more realistic then Russia deploying actual troops. An airbase carries less risk and causes less logistical problems. Russia also has other engagements that they can't really get out of. There are a decent amount of troops in Ukraine right now and many more deployed to counter any threat from NATO. I could see more advisers, perhaps even some deployed with Syrian units, but I don't see the Russians do much more then that. 

How will America react? Depends. We are on record as saying that we will fight anyone who targets our so called "secular" rebels on the ground in Syria. That was a clear warning to the regime, but what happens if it is the Russians sending airstrikes against anti-Assad militias? That would be a huge international incident but I just don't see America trying to shoot down Russian jets. Especially since I think Russia's main targets in Syria would be ISIS and other Islamic groups. I doubt the situation would come up anyways. The enemy of our enemy might not be our friend, but that doesn't mean that conflict would be inevitable. 

Will a few airstrikes and advisers be enough to prop up the Syrian regime? I don't know, but it is pretty clear that if the regime is to have any chance at all, someone would have to step up. The regime has suffered defeat after defeat in the past few months and it seemed clear that there was a decent chance of the entire country falling to the rebels and/or Jihadists. 

Still, I don't think it will be enough, unless Russia and Iran pull out all the stops. ISIS is on the march and the al-Nusra led Army of Conquest is a major threat as well. Even in the south, secular rebels are threatening regime positions. A few airstrikes and advisers won't change that. They also won't change the huge supply problems for the regime's eastern enclaves. And they won't fix the manpower problems the regime has. 

Either way though, this is an interesting story and I hope the truth comes out soon. My take on it for now is that the rumors are probably true but less important then people are making it out to be. Russia may indeed deploy a few token forces, but I don't see them deploying enough to actually do much.