U.A.E. has lost 45 of its soldiers in a missile strike in Yemen. Wall Street Journal.

An airstrike in Yemen. WSJ/AP.

The United Arab Emirates has confirmed that 45 of its soldiers have died in a missile strike in Yemen. Wall Street Journal.  The attack was the largest loss of life in a single attack for the entire Saudi-led coalition since the war began. The troops died when an ammunition depot was hit by a surface to surface missile. It has not been confirmed who fired the missile, but the most likely candidate is the Houthi rebels. Ground troops have been deployed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia since last July and the countries have lost 50 and 100 troops respectively. The UAE has lead the effort on the ground and has deployed thousands of troops to Yemen. Bahrain also lost 5 troops recently, though it is unclear if they died in the same incident that killed the 45 troops from the UAE. Yemen has descended into chaos after the Houthi rebels took the capital of Sanaa. ISIS has taken advantage of the situation and has conducted several attacks in the region, including a pair of suicide bombings that killed 22 people at a mosque in Sanaa. 

My Comment:

I feel like I dropped the ball here since until I read this article I hadn't realized that the UAE had deployed troops in Yemen. I haven't posted about Yemen since last July largely because I hadn't seen any articles about it to comment on. You would have thought it would have been bigger news, but I guess not. Either that or I just missed it, which is very possible. The war in Yemen has definitely been covered less compared to all the other events happening right now. 

I've been hearing from other sources that this missile attack was made with a ballistic missile. I posted before about how the Houthi rebels have access to SCUD missiles. Back then I said that SCUD missiles could be a huge threat if they managed to hit a base or city. Well, it looks like they managed to hit an ammo depot perfectly in a way that killed at least 45 people. That's incredible luck for the Houthis and very bad luck for the UAE since SCUD's aren't the most accurate weapon in the world. 

Finding and destroying these ballistic missile launchers should be a huge priority for the Saudi coalition. As the first Gulf War showed, hunting mobile SCUD launchers is a difficult operation. The Saudi coalition has air superiority and have a decent air strike capability, but it's very hard to find targets. This is especially true for SCUD launchers. All you need to do is back it into a garage or put some camouflage over it between firings. Taking them out will not be easy, if it is even possible at all.

The limiting factor for the SCUDS is how many they have. In my last post I found that the entire country of Yemen only had 300 missiles, and I seriously doubt the Houthi's control all of them. My guess is that they have significantly less then that and the Houthi's have no way to resupply, so sooner or later this situation will resolve itself. Unless of course the Houthi's are using some other kind of surface to surface missile. My guess is that this was a SCUD based on the destruction and the fact that other sources have called it a ballistic missile, but it's possible it was some other kind of weapon. 

As for the war itself, it seems that the Saudi led coalition is having quite a bit of success. Sure, this strike is a setback but it seems like they are making progress in taking back territory from the Houthis. Will they win? My guess is in the end they will prevail. The Houthis have very little in the way of weapons manufacturing and have nobody who is able to supply them. Iran wants to help, but the Saudi's blockade is making sure that won't happen. 

With no backup and against an enemy that outnumbers them and has much more up to date weapons, I think the Houthis are doomed. That isn't to say that this will be an easy war for the coalition. The Houthis still control quite a bit of territory, are on the defensive and still have powerful weapons. And they aren't the only game in town.

As always, I have to mention that the chaos in Yemen provides yet another opportunity for ISIS and al-Qaeda to gain a foothold. Both groups are basically acting unopposed in Yemen, other then occasional skirmishes with both sides of the war and a few US drone strikes. The latest suicide bombing in Sanaa just goes to show how active ISIS is in Yemen and al-Qaeda also control quite a bit of territory in the country. The worst possible outcome for the war is for the country to fall apart completely like Iraq and Syria did, giving ISIS and/or al-Qaeda a chance to gain control...