Russia has begun airstrikes in Syria. Reuters.

Vladimir Putin and his security council. Reuters/Kremlin photo.

Russia has officially joined the war against ISIS and has conducted airstrikes in Syria for the first time. Reuters. The United States is scrambling to find a way to coordinate with Russia to avoid possible conflicts. Russia gave US forces one hour to stop airstrikes and delivered the message to diplomats in Iraq. However, the United States did not cease their operations. Russia claims that they sent 20 missions over Syria and destroyed multiple ISIS targets, including a command post and an operations center. However, Syrian opposition groups and the United States dispute this claim, saying that Russia hit targets in the city of Aleppo, which is not controlled by ISIS. In Homs, another city that is not in ISIS hands, activists reported heavy damage from Russian airstrikes. Unlike the strikes conducted by the regime, the attack by the Russians gave little to no warning and may have killed as many as 30 civilians. Moscow claims that the airstrikes will be limited in nature, 

Possible footage of Russian airstrikes in Syria. Youtube/Russia Insider.

My Comment:

This is a major development and represents a new phase in the Syrian Civil War. This is no longer a local conflict. The entire world seems to be getting involved. And Russia is just the last of a long line of countries that have joined the war. But unlike other countries Russia has actually deployed ground forces. I don't think those ground forces will be involved in combat, but it shows a level of commitment that nobody else has shown. 

It seems very clear that Russia is not targeting ISIS in any meaningful way. The cities they targeted, Homs and Aleppo aren't anywhere near the front lines between the regime and ISIS. They are targeting the rebels. There really isn't any question about that. Homs and Aleppo are strongholds for the rebellion. ISIS isn't anywhere near those cities. Russia may strike ISIS soon, and there may have been strikes outside of those two cities, but for the time being they are not fighting ISIS. 

And I don't have a problem with that. There aren't any secular rebels left in those cities. They have all either joined up with the al-Nusra Front or they are at least supporting them during battles against the regime. That isn't to say that there aren't a few secular rebels left in Syria. Notably, there are a few groups left in the South, but I really don't buy the argument that Russia is attacking "secular" rebels in these cities. Anyone that is fighting hand in hand with al-Qaeda deserves what ever they have coming to them. They are lying about fighting ISIS, but when that lie is being use to justify attacks on al-Nusra and their allies, I don't mind. 

The most disturbing part of this is the fact that Russia and the United States aren't coordinating right now. Though the chances of some kind of incident are low, the fact of the matter is that it still exists. It sounds like the Pentagon is absolutely scrambling to find a way to work with the Russians to, at the very least, avoid any kind of incident. I think they will work things out but until that happens, there is a risk.

I'm not too worried about that, but I am worried about one of our allies doing something stupid. I already talked about how Saudi Arabia is threatening unspecified "military action" in response to the Russians. I don't think there is much they can actually do, but threatening that isn't at all helpful. Turkey also has the potential to cause an incident. They hate the regime almost as much as they hate the Kurds. They must be seething right now. Their hated enemy will probably survive even after everything they have thrown at them. 

With all that being said, I don't think Russia will help all that much. The couple of squadrons of fighter bombers they have deployed in Syria won't be enough to win the war for the regime. For that the members of the Syrian Army, along with their Hezbollah and Iranian allies, will need to step up. Air power alone is never enough to win a war alone. For that you need ground forces, and that means the Syrian Army. Given how poor their performance has been as of late, I don't think much on the ground changes. I think the war will continue to be a stalemate. 

And you have to admit that this is a huge blow to Obama's foreign policy. He has been completely outmaneuvered by Vladimir Putin at every stage of the Syrian conflict. He has always said that Assad has to go and now that is almost certainly not going to happen. He has tried to train rebels and failed completely. He has tried to fight ISIS and they haven't even come close to being defeated. All in all it shows how Obama has failed as a foreign policy president and how outclassed he is by Vladimir Putin. Let's hope our next president is in the same weight class as Putin is, and not another lightweight like Obama is.