U.S. deploys warships to Yemen to prevent Iranian arms shipments. Yahoo/AP

USS Vicksburg and USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Mediterranean last month. Yahoo/Reuters

The United States has deployed the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt to the coast of Yemen to join a fleet of American ships with a mission of preventing any arms shipments to the Houthi Rebels. Yahoo/AP. The deployment comes after the UN security council passed an arms embargo. The deployment of the Roosevelt comes after report that Iran had sent a convoy of nine ships, some of them warships, to Yemen. U.S. cruisers and destroyers may be tasked to board and inspect these ships. The United States is providing support for Saudi Arabia's campaign against the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran. 

My Comment:

It will be interesting to see how the United States handles this crisis. I'm not sure how much of this is just "showing the flag" or if it is more then that. The deployment of an aircraft carrier is always a major political move, so sending this carrier to the region is a big sign of how serious the situation is in Yemen. Still, the carriers role in any inspections will be limited. Its role will be to provide air support and add strike capability if things go really bad.

The Iranians will almost certainly have to back down now. Their navy is no match for the United States fleet. I haven't heard what the composition of the Iranian convoy, but my guess is they don't have anything bigger then a frigate. Yes, those ships may have anti-ship missiles but the U.S. fleet is fairly protected from missile strikes due to the Aegis system. Sure Iran has a large fleet of small missile boats but they are too far away from the coast of Yemen to be a threat. If there was any kind of naval engagement between the U.S. fleet and the Iranian convoy, the Iranians would lose and lose badly.

The real threat would be some kind of conflict during and inspection. It is possible that the Iranians could try and fight off a boarding, which could lead to deaths on both sides. It's also possible that they could do some kind of suicide attack as well. Such an attack would be very counterproductive for the Iranians, so I don't think they would do it on purpose. But it is always possible for an inspection to go bad for dumb reasons.

So what are Iran's options for supplying the Houthis? The don't have any good options. Blockade running isn't really an option because the United States has enough airplanes and radar to find any ships. Iran could try to supply the Houthis via submarine, but there is a chance that they wouldn't make it through undetected either and even if they did they wouldn't be able to carry all that much. Iran could try to resupply the Houthis with airplanes but they can carry even less. Plus there aren't that many safe airports in Yemen and the ones that do exist could be attacked by the Saudis. 

My guess is that the Houthis will be effectively cut off from supplies. This gives them a huge disadvantage. Without new weapons and other supplies they will not be able to continue their offensive. Combined with a withering air campaign, the Houthis may have to retreat or accept some kind of peace settlement.