Reports of Iranian officers captured in Yemen. Yahoo/Reuters.

A Houthi rebel receiving aid from the Red Cross. Yahoo/Reuters

Loyalist militia in Yemen are reporting the capture of two Iranian officers. Yahoo/Reuters. The officers were captured in Aden and are believed to be members of the elite Quds Force from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The officers, a Colonel and Captain, are believed to be advisers for the Houthi rebels who are fighting against the Yemeni government and are targets of the Saudi Arabian-led international alliance. The capture of the officers is likely to increase tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Iranian backed Houthis have had success lately but are under heavy airstrikes which have slowed their advance. The war is believed to have killed as many as 600 people and wounded 2000 more with large numbers of people being forced to flee. 

My Comment:

This is huge news if it is true. I have little doubt it is, Reuters is pretty reliable and there doesn't seem to be any other reason for these officers to be in Yemen. It was largely assumed that the Iranians were there anyways but to have proof of it is very significant. The somewhat high rank of the officers is significant as well. 

So what does this tell us? For one, much like the various Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthi rebels are a proxy army for the Iranians. They are also winning, just like they are in Iraq. Iran is pushing hard to both restore a Persian empire and to also become the leader of the Muslim world. Like Iraq and Syria, Yemen represents a new front for Iran to gain influence and power. To do so they are deploying troops and sending supplies. They are also staring down the Saudis and daring them to blink. 

For the Saudis this presents a real problem for them. As a matter of fact it may be one of the main reasons they haven't invaded Yemen yet. The other reason is that they are having a hard time convincing their allies to deploy troops. But I am guessing the political implications of killing Iranian troops may be what is staying their hands. After all, the deaths of Iranian soldiers could be enough to push Iran into a wider, open, war instead of the proxy one they are fighting now. 

I'm still half expecting a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. They are pretty much at war right now but  it is more of a cold war. It could very well become hot. It wouldn't take much to light up the tinderbox that is the Middle East. A terror attack, a naval incident, a plane collision, any kind of incident could start up a war. Or either side could decide that going to war is the right choice.

So what would that look like? I'd doubt that there would be much in the way of actual fighting on the ground but there would be air battles and possible naval skirmishes as well. If things got serious I could even see missile attacks and perhaps even deployment of chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons (if the Iranians are further along then we suspect or the Israelis get involved. And they WILL get involved).

 I'm guessing the U.S. role would be similar to the role it took during the Iran-Iraq war. Back then U.S. naval and aviation were tasked to protect international shipping to make sure that the oil kept flowing. That could lead to some U.S. casualties and the entire war would damage the economy. 

Hopefully it would never come to that but the chances of a wider war get higher everyday. It is both a sectarian war between Sunni and Shiite and a battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for control of the Middle East. Even if the Islamic Cold War does not go hot, it will still be a huge destabilizing factor in a region of the world that is already destabilized...