Massive suicide bombing in Afghanistan. Yahoo/Reuters.

Soldiers and civilians run for cover at the site of the blast. Yahoo/Reuters. 

A suicide bombing in Jalalabad Afghanistan has killed at least 33 people and wounded 100 more. Yahoo/Reuters. The attack happened at a bank where dozens of government workers were lined up to collect their paychecks. It is unclear who is responsible for the attack. The Taliban denied any responsibility and condemned the attack, but they tend to do so when civilians are killed in attacks. ISIS in Afghanistan and Pakistan took credit but that information can not be verified. 

My Comment:

Normally a suicide bombing in Afghanistan, even one with this many casualties, would not warrant mention on this blog. Not even with the heavy number of casualties. Frankly, it is nothing new, and suicide bombings are likely to continue in Afghanistan as the war there heats up. This one was a little worse then most due to the number of casualties but other then that it isn't all that special.

Except for one thing. ISIS is taking credit for this attack. If that is true that means that ISIS is a lot more active in Afghanistan then we previously thought. That is obviously a very bad thing. Is it true though? I'm leaning towards no. After all, ISIS just loves to take credit for attacks they had little to nothing to do with. Both the Bardo Museum attack and the Charlie Hebdo attacks were claimed by ISIS but were actually done by Al-Qaeda. 

When it comes to ISIS and terror attacks my policy is to wait until we are absolutely sure that they are the ones that did it. Their whole strategy is getting media attention, and if they can take credit for the work of other terror groups, then that is good for them. It makes them look more powerful and capable then they actually are. In terms of professional terrorist attacks, ISIS hasn't accomplished much. Sure they have killed massive amounts of people and conducted suicide bombings, but compared to Al-Qaeda they are amateurs. 

If it wasn't ISIS then who was it? My guess is the Taliban. They have certainly done these kinds of things before. They are denying it of course, since even terrorist groups have to worry about the public relations nightmare that killing civilians. Unlike ISIS, the Taliban doesn't want that kind of attention. It is possible that Al-Qaeda or some other group is responsible but my guess is that it was the Taliban. 

Finally, it is clear that the war in Afghanistan is far from over. We still have 12,000 NATO troops there and the Afghan army is still suffering. Last year alone they lost 20,000 troops. Those numbers are sure to go up as they take up the combat burden and the Taliban start their summer offensive. 

Do I think Afghanistan will lose the war? Probably not, but they aren't winning it either. I've heard rumors that the enclaves the Taliban have in Pakistan are being destroyed so more fighters are pouring into Afghanistan. Add that to the new threat of ISIS and you have a very dangerous situation. The 12,000 troops NATO has there won't do much other then train. If Afghanistan is to stand, they will have to stand alone...