Iraq declares victory in the battle for Tikrit. Yahoo/AFP

Shiite fighters celebrate the liberation of Tikrit. Yahoo/AFP.

Iraq has declared victory in the battle for Tikrit. Yahoo/AFP. Iraqi troops are trying to clear the last pockets of resistance and defuse the various bombs and IED's left behind by ISIS fighters. Iraqi troops took the city center yesterday, though there are still fighters in the city. Military officers claim that Iraq has regained control of "95%" of the city. ISIS fighters have now launched an attack in an attempt to open an escape route for the fighters still left in the city. It is unclear how many casualties Iraq and the Iranian-backed militias sustained, but they are believed to be heavy. The battle for Tikrit had stalled out due to heavy ISIS resistance and logistical and political problems. The stalemate was lifted due in part to heavy U.S. airstrikes after the Shia militias withdrew from the front lines. With Tikrit now largely under control, Mosul is largely seen as the next major target for Iraq to liberate. 

My Comment:

Although this is a major victory for Iraq, I'm still not all that impressed with the results of this battle. I've heard that ISIS had as few as 200 fighters in the city while Iraq had almost 30,000. It took them a month to win the battle and it seemed they were only able to do it when the United States decided to strike targets for them. And they only pulled it off with heavy casualties. That does not bode well for the Iraqi government and the Iraqi military. 

And they need to shape up and shape up soon because the battle for Mosul will be even more brutal then the battle for Tikrit was. They will also have to face the problem of civilians. I was very worried about civilian casualties and reprisals against the population of Tikrit, but Iraq is claiming that almost all of them were evacuated. I'm not sure how true that is but even if it is true it won't be for the city of Mosul. Mosul is a much bigger city and they have around million people living there. We will find out this fall when the offensive is planned if they can pull it off, but I am expecting a bloodbath unprecedented in the war against ISIS. 

Iraq is also going to have to undertake the monumental task of rebuilding the city. The first step of that is completely clearing the city of booby traps and IED's, no small task in itself. Then they have to rebuild the infrastructure. I've heard a couple of reports that the airstrikes that were called in were incredibly destructive, so there will be a lot of work to do. The people that were evacuated from the city might not have much of a city to move back too, and even if they do try to rebuild, they will still have to worry about ISIS terrorism. This is going to cost a ton of money and effort. 

The article talked a bit about U.S.-Iran tensions and this is a good of place as any to ask the question. What happens if the situation in Yemen goes completely out of control and there is a major war between the Sunni gulf states and Iran? If Iran is in a shooting war with Saudi Arabia, and perhaps Pakistan as well, will they still fight against ISIS? I can't imagine that they would, my guess is that they would withdraw so they could fight their stronger enemies. That would leave the Iraq government in a very difficult position. If they joined the war against Saudi Arabia, they would lose the United States as an ally, if they didn't they would lose Iran. Since Iraq needed help from both countries to take back a single city, imagine what would happen if they lost all of that support?

In short the possible conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia and her allies has the potential to completely undo the progress that has been made against ISIS. No doubt a war would throw the whole region in chaos, possibly the whole world. It seems very possible to me that the Yemen situation could spiral out of control and threaten the entire region. That would be a massive blow to both Iraq and the United States while at the same time being a boon for ISIS. With ISIS given a free hand in Iraq they could expand freely and could possibly pull of major terror attacks. No good will come from a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. 

However, whatever the long term implications, this was still a major victory in the battle against ISIS. They lost troops, supplies and, most importantly, morale. They probably suffered less in terms of deaths and injuries then the Iraqis they were fighting against, but Iraq can sustain the casualties better, especially when many of those casualties were from Iranian backed militia units. They also left Mosul in a very vulnerable state and it is looking likely that they will lose that city as well. After that they will have lost some of their most valuable holdings in Iraq. It will be a long time before ISIS is defeated in Iraq, but if the situation in the Middle East doesn't go completely insane, there is a chance that it can happen sooner then any of us expected.