Al-Qaeda is taking territory in Yemen. Yahoo/AFP

Yemeni civilians surround a car that was destroyed in a drone strike against Al-Qaeda members. Yahoo/AFP.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is taking and holding territory in Yemen in the wake of the Houthi rebellion. Yahoo/AFP. The deteriorating security situation is the result of a very successful campaign by the Shiite Houthi rebellion that all but overthrew the government of Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi. Saudi Arabia has responded to the situation by launching a sustained bombing campaign against the rebels, while leaving AQAP alone. US officials are worried about the threat that AQAP presents. With the Hadi government largely powerless and focused on other tasks, the United States lost a major ally in the fight against Al-Qaeda. 

My Comment:

I get the feeling that the situation is a bit worse then what is being reported in this AFP article. For one, the United States no longer has much of a diplomatic or military presence in Yemen. Our forces left with their tails behind their legs, weapons and documents left abandoned. We also have had to rely on other countries to evacuate our people from the country. If we can't even evacuate our own people how are we supposed to fight AQAP? Not that our anti-terror operations were all that effective in the first place, but something is better then nothing. 

And the situation in Yemen is going to get worse before it gets better. There is a very high chance that Saudi Arabia could invade, with the help of their allies. There is even a chance that Iran could get involved in the Houthi side and start a wider regional war. Even now, Iran has deployed a couple of warships. It seems like this is going to be one of those wars where everyone is fighting everyone is fighting each other and extremist groups like AQAP fall through the cracks. After all that is how ISIS and Al-Nusra got to where they are now... 

Since AQAP is perhaps the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world, that is very bad news. Keep in mind that AQAP was the group that pulled off the Charlie Hebdo massacre. They are very good at what they do and they have extensive experience in terrorism. Holding territory will give them a recruitment base, money and resources that they would not otherwise have. Their troops are also becoming battle hardened, which means that if they do try and pull off a Charlie Hebdo style attack they will be more effective. They are also patient and are willing to wait years for an opportunity to strike. In short they are a major threat to Europe and even the United States, to say nothing of the threat to their regional neighbors. And right now the United States is doing very little to stop them.

The more disturbing implication of this is that there is yet another radical Muslim group that is taking and holding territory. In addition to AQAP, ISIS controls vast tracts of land in Iraq, Syria and Libya. Al-Nusra holds a decent part of Syria as well and Boko Haram has control of the northern part of Nigeria. Al-Shabab controls territory in Somalia and the Taliban still has holdings in Pakistan and Afghanistan. All of these groups are imposing their beliefs onto a new generation and they are all very active. Even if all of these organizations are destroyed, and they all will be eventually unless the world goes even more insane then it is now, they will spawn hundreds or even thousands of people who have known nothing other then Jihad.

This is a generational war and the fact that these Jihadi movements are holding territory means that these problems will outlive all of us. I don't know what we can do to change the beliefs of people raised to be Jihadists. We don't even know how to stop these radical Islamic groups from spreading. Short of glassing the whole region or carpet bombing every country that has active Jihadist groups, there isn't much we can do other then target their leadership and hope that the governments involved in fighting these groups win out in the end. No matter how hard that will be, reprogramming the people brought up under these groups is going to be a much harder task... I'm starting to believe that I won't ever see a world where the threat of Islamic extremism is nothing but a bad memory. It will always be with us...