Heavy shelling in Ukraine. Is the cease fire over? Yahoo/AP

A damaged APC in no man's land between the rebel and Ukrainian government battle lines. Yahoo/AP

The cease fire in Ukraine has been jeopardized by heavy shelling between pro-Russian rebels and the government of Ukraine. Yahoo/AP. European observers recorded almost 1200 explosions on Sunday alone, with heavy artillery and mortar strikes near Donetsk. Rebels captured at least one Ukrainian solider and the shelling may have injured a few journalists. Both sides appear to be using the heavy weapons that were supposed to be withdrawn due to the terms of the cease fire. Both sides are reporting more casualties in the last couple of days compared to the relative calm since the cease fire was signed. 

My Comment:

I knew that the cease fire wasn't going to last. The question now is if this is going to be the start of a new offensive or if this is just random shelling. My guess is the second option. The Ukrainians are too weak to start another major offensive. They just don't have the troops, supplies and weapons. The rebels are in a bit better shape but their main objective now is Mariupol. Since this shelling is near Donetsk in the north, I'm betting that this is just random attacks as payback for the war on both sides. 

The question now is if this shelling is going to escalate to the point that both sides will try and start up offensive operations again.  Right now, both sides seem to be caught in the "they shelled us so we have to shell them back" mindset. This can play out a couple of different ways. One possibility is that they just keep shelling each other without attacking in any other major way. That seems unlikely. The more probable result is that the fighting between ground troops will start up again. Indeed, the AP report made it seem like that is already happening. 

Right now it seems like the war is in a stalemate. Neither side is strong enough to defeat the other, or even have any kind of major advantage at the negotiating table. Neither side wants peace either. Too much blood has been spilled for either side to really reconcile over the short term. Sure, there are economic, humanitarian and military reasons for the cease fire to hold, but the desire for revenge is just too strong.

There doesn't seem to be any real solution for the Ukraine civil war. If the far-right nationalist elements of Ukraine's government hadn't been allowed to pass their anti-Russian language laws the war might have never happened. The compromise back then could have been to adopt a Canadian-style federal state where the Donbass region had special privileges. It is far too late for that now. Too many people have died.

So how does the war end? Assuming that Ukraine doesn't turn into one of those failed states with an unending rebellion, like many in Africa or the Middle East, my guess is that the rebels get what they want. Russia is giving them lots of support and it's clear that the West isn't willing to risk war to really help the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian economy is in shambles as well. To put it bluntly, they can't afford war. They will have to give up the Donbass region to independence. Russia will probably annex them just like they did with Crimea. It's going to take awhile, maybe years, but in the end, Ukraine is going to lose and the rebels will become independent. The real question is whether or not Mariupol goes with them...