ISIS is back on the offensive in Iraq, as they threaten Ramadi. CNN.

A militiaman fighting ISIS in Ramadi. CNN. 

Heavy fighting has broken out just 70 miles from Baghdad as the city of Ramadi, capital of the Anbar province, may fall to ISIS. CNN. Iraqi officials, some fighting on the front lines, begged the government for reinforcements. ISIS fighters have captured three villages on the eastern outskirts of Ramadi while also cutting off the area to the north. They already had control of the south leaving only a western exit of the city. Refugees, some fleeing on foot, have poured out of the region to avoid the fighting. The battle for Ramadi is not a new one, but the amount of progress ISIS has made is stunning. U.S. airstrikes have occurred in the area, but the offensive has not been blunted. The new attacks in Ramadi comes after ISIS has suffered major defeats in Tikrit and other parts of northern Iraq. 

My Comment:

This is very bad news out of Iraq. After the battle of Tikrit and the advances the Kurds are making in the north it was easy to forget about ISIS activities in the south. They have a strong presence in Ramadi and have contested Fallujah for most of the war. Both of these cities are on the southwestern approaches of Baghdad. 

It seems obvious to me what ISIS is trying to do here. Losing Tikrit was a huge blow for them and now they are in danger of losing their de-facto capital in Iraq, Mosul. That can't happen for them, so they are trying to take Ramadi. Since Ramadi is very close to Baghdad, the Iraqi government will have to respond. If they actually do take it, they can use it as a staging area to threaten Baghdad. Plus it goes without saying that they will have a whole new city to loot and a new pool of people to draw recruits from.

Do I think ISIS will attack Baghdad? No, of course not. They aren't strong enough to do so. But by threatening to do so they are forcing the Iraqi government to move their forces around. That will make them more vulnerable to attacks elsewhere. Perhaps they will use the distraction to attack Tikrit again? Anything is possible at this point. 

The southern part of Iraq, south of the Euphrates river, also has the advantage of being mostly Sunni. That means if Iraq/Iran were to send their Shiite militia fighters there they would face fierce resistance. They would also have to deal with large numbers of Sunni civilians. Given how terrible the Shiite militias have been in committing atrocities, that could also push even more Sunnis into the ISIS camp. 

Ramadi is also very far away from the other effective fighting force in Iraq. The Kurds have no interest in the area and couldn't get there if they wanted too. That leaves the Iraqi army and whatever Sunni militias are left to fight against ISIS. Given how poor the Iraqi army's performance has been in this war, I doubt they will have all that much success. 

This is very bad news for the defenders of Ramadi. Their situation is bad enough but I just don't know where any support for them would come from. Yes, the United States and her allies will launch airstrikes, but I doubt that will be enough. They need boots on the ground now. If the CNN report is accurate, they have government officials taking part in the fighting. That doesn't happen in situations that are under control. 

Will Ramadi fall? My guess is that it will. There just aren't enough friendly troops in the area and even if there were, there isn't time to get them into position. Given how terrible ISIS has been when they have captured major cities, this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better... 

 And it just goes to show that the fight against ISIS is far from over. In the past couple of days I have seen many news reports with headlines declaring that ISIS is losing territory all over Iraq and Syria. Though that is true, the fact that they were able to pull of a major offensive in Ramadi without a whole lot of warning right after a major defeat means they are nowhere near finished...