Kim Jong Un has killed 15 of his senior officials already this year. Yahoo/AFP

Kim Jong Un. Yahoo/AFP. 

North Korea's dictator, Kim Jong Un, has ordered the death of at least 15 of his senior officials this year so far. Yahoo/AFP. Several of the executed officials were vice ministers, a high rank in the North Korean government. They were killed for criticizing Kim Jong Un's policies. Another minister was executed for criticizing his policy on forestry. In addition to the senior officials, 4 members of an orchestral group Kim's wife belonged to were executed on charges of espionage. This isn't the first time Kim has used executions to keep his people in line. In 2013 he had his uncle and mentor, Jang Song Thaek, killed as well because he was gaining too much power and prestige. Many see Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, as his closest adviser.

My Comment:

Looks like Kim is having some trouble consolidating his power. Having to execute so many of his top people shows me that he feels threatened. I don't know if the threats against him are real or imagined, but he doesn't feel safe either way. And a man that doesn't feel safe with absolute power is a very scary thing. Just ask anyone who lived through Stalin's purges... 

Some of these executions seem very vindictive and, quite frankly, immature. Killing a man because he disagreed with you about forestry, of all things, is just stupid. And I doubt that a vice minister of forestry is all that threatening to Kim. But his grip on power must be so weak that any threat has to be dealt with extreme prejudice. Which is why the people from the orchestral group that Kim's wife was a member of were executed as well. My guess is that they knew that they knew something about Kim Yo Jong that they didn't want the rest of the world to know about. 

Do I think Kim will hold onto power? Probably. Anyone that was plotting against him is probably reconsidering it now. They just can't overthrow him either. The North Korean people worship Kim as a god, so they can't just get rid of him. Their best bet was to relegate him to a ceremonial figure, but that chance is entirely gone now. Kim is wielding power, effectively I might add, and there seems to be very little to stop him. It's not like a revolution in North Korea is even likely at this point... 

Do I think that North Korea is a threat? Not really. Kim likes to rattle cages and threaten violence but he rarely carries out any attacks. And when he does it usually doesn't amount to too much. He threatens and attacks just enough to provoke and get attention but never so much that he actually risks war. He's still a dangerous man and a war with South Korea would be devastating for all involved, but North Korea is mostly a paper tiger. 

I think deep down the North Koreans know that they would lose any war against the South. The have a massive military but it pales in terms of effectiveness compared to the South, and that doesn't even account for the American forces in the area. Sure a war would probably destroy Seoul, and could even go nuclear, but in the end North Korea would lose and lose hard. 

Which is why it probably will never happen. Kim Jong Un just has too much to lose. He's not going to take the risk of actually going to war because if he does he loses everything. He also knows that the paper tiger strategy works. It worked for his father and it is working for him as well. 

That isn't to say that he isn't a threat. There is always a chance that he will cause some terrorist attack. And North Korea is a major exporter of arms, which is a net negative when the countries that get those arms are fellow bad actors on the world stage. And the recent Sony hacking scandal shows that he can hurt the U.S. economically. Plus there is always a chance that he could miscalculate badly and accidentally start a war. In short, the world would be a better, safer, place if Kim wasn't in power. Unfortunately he's probably going to be there as long as he lives...