As you may know, every year I make predictions on what I think the biggest political and cultural issues of the year will be. At the end of the year I like to go through those predictions and either laugh at how wrong I was or smugly reflect on how right I was. Usually it's more of the former than the latter.
A quick note of how I will score this. I get a point for correct predictions and nothing for incorrect predictions. In some cases I will give myself half credit. If, for example, I said there was going to be $5 billion authorized for Trump's border wall and only $1 billion was raised, I would deserve some credit for at least realizing that the wall would get money, even if I was wrong on the details. All my responses will be in red text.
Finally, I do plan on writing up predictions for 2019 as a follow up post. Depending on how dead the week is for news that could be as early as tomorrow or as late as Friday. I do plan on writing it though as these posts are some of my favorites to write. Without further ado...
POLITICAL PREDICTIONS:
-Donald Trump will remain president through 2018. 95% (would be at 100% but i'm accounting for age, as sad as that would be) Obviously correct
-Despite that, there will continue to be efforts by disgruntled Democrats to remove him. 100% Also obviously correct
-The left will attempt again to resurrect the sexual harassment accusations against him yet again. 95%. Half credit. I view the recent attempts to get Jeffery Epstein back into the news as a prelude to this, and some of the fringe people on the left are harping that, but it isn't mainstream yet
-Despite their best efforts, Trump's approval rating will either be higher or remain the same as the current 45% approval rating (as of last Friday from Rasmussen). 80% As of this writing it's at 47% from Rasmussen so correct.
3.5/4
-The 2018 midterms will essentially be status quo ante without any major changes in control of the House and Senate. 66% Wrong on both counts. GOP lost the house but won several seats in the senate.
-My senator, Tammy Baldwin, will lose re-election. 66% Despite my best efforts, she is still there.
-Any senate defeats will be in states controlled by the opposite parties. 75% Wrong, Arizona flipped despite remaining a red state.
-Major systemic voter fraud will be discovered, either in the 2018 elections, the 2016 elections or the 2017 special elections. 40% This didn't happen so I get a point, even though I strongly suspect that voter fraud did happen in all of those elections. It wasn't proven.
1/4
-There will be another major incident of violence directed at an elected official, like the Steve Scalise shooting or the Rand Paul attack. 85% Correct, several GOP officials were attacked, mostly at the state level.
-Violence will be directed towards a Republican. 75% Obviously correct.
-Violence will be directed towards a Democrat. 55% I'm going to count the hoax bomb threats sent to many Democrats and Trump critics as this.
3/3
-Another major sitting politician or one running for office will be taken down by sexual assault/harassment allegations. 95% Many such cases
-There will be a major sexual assault/harassment scandal with a woman being accused in politics. 66% At least one example.
2/2
-Despite the major threat of midterm elections, Congress will fail to accomplish anything on the scale of the Tax Bill. 75% Wrong, a major criminal justice reform bill passed
-CCW reciprocity will pass into law. 75% Wrong, sadly.
-The wall will have more preliminary work done but will not begin major construction in 2018. 66%
Correct.
1/3
-The Robert Muller probe will end early in 2018 and will not result in any major indictments (ie top level advisers or campaign officials or members of Trump's family) beyond what has happened now. 80%. Wrong on both counts.
-There will be 2nd special counsel investigating the FBI scandal and/or the Hillary Clinton campaign. 80% There have been calls for it, but no actual action.
-There will be an indictment for a major member of the Barack Obama administration or the Hillary Clinton campaign. 70% Wrong
-Despite being debunked, the media and the Democrats will continue to talk about Russia throughout the year. 100% Correct.
1/4
WAR PREDICTIONS:
-There will be no major war in North Korea. 70% Correct
-There will be some minor military action on the Korean Peninsula but no full scale war (like targeted airstrikes or a border skirmish). 55% Wrong and almost unthinkable now.
-Kim Jong Un will still be in power in 2018. 90% Correct.
-North Korea will have another nuclear test in 2018. 75% Wrong and again almost unthinkable now.
2/4
-ISIS will still exits in Iraq and Syria in 2018 and will be able to conduct raids and terror attacks despite not controlling much territory. 90% Correct
-ISIS will continue to control territory in Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. 70% Correct.
-The war in Syria will continue, but with major Syrian government victories. 80% Correct, the war is all but won.
-US and Russian forces will remain in Syria through 2018. 95% Correct, but both seem to be on the way out.
4/4
-There will be terrorist attack in the United States that will kill and injure 10+ people. 95% The Pittsburgh Synagogue shooting counts.
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the United States that will kill and injure 100+ people. 75%
Wrong
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the United States that will kill and injure more than 500 people. 40%. Correct
-ISIS or someone inspired by ISIS will be responsible for a terrorist attack in the United States. 99%
Wrong
-There will be another major domestic terrorism case in the United States done for non-Islamic political reasons. 95%. Again, the Synagogue shooting. Arguably the mail bombing/poisoning attempts.
-Canada will experience an ISIS/Islamic motivated attack in 2018. 75% Yes.
4/6
-There will be terrorist attack in Europe that will kill and injure 10+ people. 100% Correct
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the Europe that will kill and injure 100+ people. 85% Wrong
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the Europe that will kill and injure more than 500 people. 55% Even more wrong
-Australia will experience an ISIS/Islamic motivated attack in 2018. 75% Correct, Australia had two ISIS inspired attacks.
-There will be an attack committed by ISIS that is connected to the core organization instead of being a "lone wolf" attack. 70% Correct.
-Al-Qaeda will attack a western country. 33% Correct, they did not.
4/6
-Ukraine will largely remain a low scale war with the status quo continuing. 85% Correct
-The Mexican Drug War will continue to be violent with a number similar (ie no huge increase or decrease) to the 23,000 killed this year but will get very little coverage internationally. 95% Half credit as the violence appears to have increased (no final numbers yet) but I was correct about there being little news about it.
-The United States will not get involved in another major conflict involving deploying troops. 95% Correct
2.5/3
CULTURAL PREDICTIONS:
-The #MeToo scandals will continue to rock the entertainment industry. 90% Correct
-A major celebrity will be exposed as a rapist or child molester in 2018. 95% Correct
-At least one woman will be accused of sexual assault, harassment or child abuse in 2018. 66% Correct, with Allison Mack and the other Nxivm cultists, among others.
3/3
-The NFL anthem protests will continue into 2018 with no major action to stop the kneelers. 75% Correct, but with almost no coverage
-The NFL will continue to have major attendance issues and will face poorer ratings. 75% Half credit. Ratings bounced back a bit but attendance is still a major problem for some teams.
-The Super Bowl will be one of the lowest rated ones in the history of the game. 70% Half credit. Viewrship was down 7% and was the lowest rated one for several years but not anywhere near a lowest rated game.
2/3
-Targeted harassment campaigns will continue to be a huge problem in 2018 for both sides of the political spectrum. 75% Correct
-The "adpocolypse" will continue and online outlets that cover political stories, including this blog, will continue to be hit hard. 70% Correct and even worse now due to active censorship
-A major news outlet will go out of business. 70% Incorrect, depending on how you answer the question. I'd so no household name ones went out of business so it doesn't count.
2/3
-Black Lives Matter will continue to be politically irrelevant and will not be able to rally attention to much of anything. 80% Until this moment I hadn't though of BLM in months
-Antifa will continue with more criminal behavior and riots but will not be as relevant as they were in 2017. 66% Correct
-The Alt-Lite and Alt-Right split will continue with both sides interacting with each other less. 75% Correct, Alt-Right basically doesn't exist anymore as a movement.
-Race relations will continue with status quo ante. 85% Seems accurate to me.
3/3
-Hollywood will have another tough year in 2018 with box office numbers down for anything that isn't Comic Books or Star Wars. 90% Half credit. I had to go ahead and lump Star Wars in there and Solo bombed horribly.
-Another movie will flop due to heavy handed political messages, either in the movie or by the people that made it, like Ghostbusters in 2016 and Mother! this year. 85% Solo, for one.
-A major celebrity will pull another Kathy Griffen style scandal and will actually be arrested for it. 75% Wrong.
-A major celebrity will become so deranged about politics that they will actually commit violence. 60% Also wrong as far as I am aware.
1.5/4
TOTAL 39.5/58 68%
So, what are my thoughts on this? I think I was overly pessimistic when it came to foreign policy. Terrorism as a whole was way down in 2018 compared to previous years. Indeed, if I had limited myself to Islamic terrorism I would have done even worse. And North Korea isn't anywhere near a threat anymore.
I was also overly optimistic politically. Midterm trends continued with the GOP losing the house and the Robert Mueller fiasco shows no signs of stopping. I was largely correct about the impact of political violence and #metoo on politics.
Culturally I was largely correct as it is clear that I overestimated how crazy celebs would get in 2018. They still shamed themselves, just not as much as I was expecting. I was all over the place with the NFL with it being a bad but not horrible year for them.
In some ways I am happy that my accuracy was done a bit from 2017, where I had 77% right. I mean it's great to be wrong about terror attacks and such. On the other I probably should have seen the drop off in attacks coming, but I did not. And I was overly optimistic on politics but I made the same mistake in 2017.
As for 2019, expect predictions there in a couple of days. I am going to have to think long and hard about what I expect for next year. As it stands right now I am not sure either way. I am hoping it's a good one and I'd like to wish everyone that reads my blog a happy new year!
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