Does China have too many domestic problems to invade Taiwan?

 

The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. The Guardian/Reuters.

The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen says that China has too many domestic problems to invade Taiwan. The Guardian. China considers Taiwan to be a rogue province and have not ruled out an invasion, though President Xi prefers to do so "peacefully".  Ing-wen said that Xi has too many internal problems, including the economy, and financial and political challenges. Intel agencies believe that China will not be ready to invade Taiwan until 2027.

My Comment:

This seems like wishful thinking from President Ing-wen, who will be leaving office soon regardless. Elections are in January and the President is term limited, so she will not be running again. Unless China invades in the next month or so, she won't be in charge when it happens.

There are two questions to answer here. Does China have the military capability to invade Taiwan? And if they do, is now the right time to do so? President Ing-wen certainly thinks the 2nd question's answer is no. But it's a moot question if China doesn't have the actual military power to invade. 

My guess is that China isn't quite ready for an invasion of Taiwan. China has never launched an amphibious invasion of this scale and it would be extremely difficult. Amphibious invasions are among the most difficult military operations period, and given that they would also have to defeat the US Navy and the navy of other allies like Japan and Australia, I don't think China is ready to pull it off. 

Will they be able to in a couple of years, or 2027 like the intel agencies predict? I am not sure. They are building up their fleet and large stockpiles of weapons, but I think it's going to be a lot rougher for them if they do decide to invade. They probably need more than what they will have even then, modern warfare is brutal. Just look at the Ukraine conflict, both Russia and Ukraine thought they were well prepared for modern warfare, and both ended up being pretty wrong. 

But I don't know if I agree that the timing is wrong for an invasion in terms of politics. Right now the United States is in the weakest position it has ever been and there is the distraction of the wars in Israel and Ukraine offering a major distractions. Our weapon supplies are low and we have had difficulty arming Taiwan. All of this could not be true by the time China is fully armed up for a conflict. 

As for China's domestics problems, I don't think their problems are any worse than anyone else. A couple of years ago when the pandemic was ravaging the country and the entire place was in lockdown, I would say it was for sure more important to deal with domestic problems than invading Taiwan. But now? 

The Chinese economy isn't doing the best, but nobody is right now. And they don't really have all that much in the way of civil unrest or potential revolutions, they have been very good at putting those down. I'm far from a China expert, so perhaps I am just missing something, but right now I don't just see it. 

And I also think that if China is having problems, a major war would be a way to deal with it. How true the political theory that countries start war to unite the country and distract against domestic problems? I am not sure, but it's certainly a trope. Given how important Taiwan is to China it may indeed unite Chinese people and could distract from China's problems or make the people more willing to deal with it, even though I think that any war with Taiwan would probably make them worse. 

Still, I am not convinced that China is actually that interested in an invasion. They are probably more interested in a political solution. All they really need is a pro-China faction to win in Taiwan and that is certainly a possibility.