Tuesday, March 21, 2023

US provided intel that helped India win a border clash with China...

 

A convoy of Indian troops near Tawang. US News & World Report/AFP.

The United States provided intel that helped India win a border clash in China back in 2022. US News & World Report. The United States provided real time intelligence to India for the first time ever including live satellite information. This allowed India respond to the incursion and push back the Chinese without any deaths. The border clashes between China and India usually involve clubs and Tasers and not firearms. China was aware of the assistance and was supposedly furious about the help India got. India and the United States relationship has improved  but the relationship is not that close, with China being one of the issues they agree on. 

My Comment:

India's place in the new global structure is still in flux. On the one hand they are regularly having border disputes with China and now we know they are getting active support from the United States. On the other, their relationship with Russia is quite good and it will be interesting which side India ends up going with. 

China was probably very upset about this. The hilariously low grade warfare that happens on the border of India and China was mostly a distraction, but I can't see how China won't see this as a major escalation. Drawing in another country to the border disputes does not seem like a thing that will calm things down. 

It could also lead to major escalations. If China realizes that their units armed with clubs and tasers are going to be intercepted by Indians with satellite support, they may decide they need a better advantage and the gentleman's agreement they have to leave the firearms at home might end up by the wayside. This could lead to actual battles instead of the beatdowns they have now. 

Still, I think that is probably unlikely. China has a lot else going on right now, including their own ambitions in Taiwan. They do want these disputed territories from India but I don't think they are willing to risk a nuclear war with India over it. These border clashes are mostly saber rattling to keep India on their toes, not a serious attempt at taking the territory away from India. 

As for India, I think they are pretty foolish for accepting US help. Right now the United States is in a decline and led by a senile fool and India is not really on their radar. India would have to compete with Ukraine for assistance and there is no guarantee they would get the assistance again...  

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