Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping meet in Russia

 

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The Guardian/AP.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have had a historic meeting over Ukraine. The Guardian. Xi and Putin said they were ready to stand guard over the world order. President Xi is expected to try to play the role of peacekeeper and attempt to end the war in Ukraine. Putin said he was ready to discuss the 12 point peace plan that China put forth recently. The talks were informal today but will be formal talks tomorrow. The United States predictably blasted the meeting saying they oppose a peace deal that doesn't end with a total Russian withdrawal. 

My Comment:

If President Xi can pull this off it will be one of the biggest diplomatic coups China has ever done. Ending the war would be undoubtedly be a major win for China and would position them as a peacemaker. It would give them a large amount of power and shake up the world order. 

And it's not like Xi and his team can't pull it off. He recently warmed relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and did it in a way that surprised everyone. Indeed, I didn't think there was anything that could get them back on speaking terms. 

After all Saudi Arabia and Iran were basically at war already. The proxy war in Yemen was an extreme fight and one that involved massive drone strikes and ballistic missiles. China somehow managed to get these two sides to talk again despite the huge casualties they had in the Yemen conflict. And now the chances of a major Middle East war are dramatically lower. 

I think both Russia and Ukraine have a major reason to consider peace. Both sides have lost huge numbers of troops and have suffered major economic damage due to the war. Russia has gotten considerably less damage than Ukraine, but it's still no small thing. 

Ukraine should consider peace because of the obvious, they are losing the war. The only reason they are able to continue the fight is because of foreign aid, which could be cut off at anytime. They have had almost three entire armies worth of equipment destroyed and they are down to unwilling draftees and old men on the front lines. They aren't going to be in a better position then they are now. 

As for Russia, it's clear that there won't be a quick solution to this war. Ukraine is losing but they will be doing it for a long time. It's possible there will be a quick collapse but I don't think it is something they can count on. Ending the war now would stop them from losing more troops and weapons. 

Both Russia and China would get a bonus out of a peace settlement. They would utterly humiliate the Biden administration, who has made Ukraine its defining issue. It would probably disrupt the dominance that the United States has enjoyed since World War II and would make us look incompetent at best and utterly deranged at worse. Imagine people having problems with peace talks, it's absurd. 

The worst part is that Biden's wounds here are entirely self inflicted. America could have played the role of peacekeeper from the start and done everything they could to reach a negotiated settlement. Instead they torpedoed the peace process and made the war last a lot longer then it had too. 

My fear is that they will do the same thing again. Even if Zelenskyy is interested in a peace deal it would be trivial for the powers that be to remove him. Though I certainly wouldn't mourn his death, he would likely be replaced by someone even more resolved to continue the war. Given that Biden's administration has said Russia losing in Ukraine was an existential interest, I could see this happening...