US pulls B-1B bomber fleet out of RAF Fairford after continuing terror threat.

 

A B-1B Lancer at RAF Fairford. 

The United States has pulled out the B-1B Lancer bomber fleet out of RAF Fairford after a continuing terror threat. NBC News. 12 of the bombers flew out on Sunday after continued threats to the base. Last week, five men were arrested for a possible terror plot while a sixth was arrested as well. All of the suspects were released on bail. Additional threats were reported, including the possibility of a drone attack on the base. Pulling the planes out of RAF Fairford will not prevent the B-1B bombers from striking Iran or other targets but will make any operation more complex and will use more fuel. Iran is suspected in organizing the terror threat against RAF Fairford. 

My Comment:

This is pretty embarrassing for both the United States and the United Kingdom. Pulling these planes out is an admission that the base can't really be defended. Given the lack of security and the fact that nobody answered the phones when the initial incident occurred, it does seem clear that the threat is real. 

The fact that this is embarrassing does not mean that this isn't the right choice. The last time I wrote about this, I mentioned that the B-1B Lancers are irreplaceable. The factory that made them does not do so anymore and we only have about 45 of them, though a few more could be reactivated, the fact is that every airframe is irreplaceable. Losing even one of these jets would greatly damage our capabilities and losing as many as 12 would be a disaster of epic proportions. 

Indeed, the only replacement for the B-1B would be the B-21 Raider, but those are not in wide production. And even if we were to rush them due to the loss of some B-1B airframes, we can only make a few each year given the complexity and expense of the planes. It does raise the question that perhaps we need an additional bomber to make up for the fact that the Raider is the only bomber in production right now. 

I do think that this threat is real. The initial attack now seems like a "dry run" for an actual attack. The initial men only had fuel and no explosives and they were able to threaten the base even with that. A real attack, perhaps involving either drones or explosives, could have done serious damage to the base and the planes stationed there. 

Indeed, we may still see an attack, either at RAF Fairford or some other strategic target in the United Kingdom. Though the B-1B's have been evacuated from the base, there are still US troops there. And there are other bases in the UK or Europe in general that could be chosen as targets instead. Those bases won't have B-1B Lancers but they absolutely could have other targets and the troops at those bases could be targets themselves. 

I do have to say that even if an attack does not happen, this is still a minor victory for Iran. Like I said, the optics of it aren't good and you can't really argue that the threat was enough to push the B-1B's out. It's a minor victory in a war where Iran has been devastated, but a victory nonetheless. The B-1B's can still hit Iran, of course, but the look is not good. 

On a related, but separate topic, I do worry that we could see a terror attack somewhere on October 7th. That is the anniversary of the 2023 attack that started the Gaza War. Muslim terrorists are big on anniversaries and the October 7th attacks were the last major successful one. There was some speculation that the RAF Fairford incident could have been a dry run for an attack on the base on that date, though that is just speculation. But it is very possible the attack, or a unrelated one, could occur on that date.