Ukraine retreats from three villages in Donetsk...

 

An Ukrainian solider of the 22nd Separate Mechanical Brigade. Reuters

Ukraine has retreated from three villages in Donetsk. Reuters. General Syrskyi, Ukraine's top commander, said that the situation at the front has worsened and the area around the captured city of Avdeeka. President Zelensky begged for new weapons despite a $61 billion funding bill passed in Congress. They are especially calling for Patriot missile batteries. General Syrskyi said that Ukraine had withdrawn from Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka. A forth town, Novobakhmutivka, was claimed by Russia as well. Fierce fighting is also occurring near Chasiv Yar, a major strategic hub that Russia is trying to capture. Russia is also building up forces near the major city of Kharkiv, also known as Kharkov, but Syrskyi said that he didn't believe that an offensive there is coming. 

My Comment:

This retreat follows the Russian victory at Ocheretino in the same general area and shows that Ukraine is not doing well at the moment. Losing four more villages after Ocheretino is not at all surprising but what is surprising is that the media is reporting it and Ukraine is admitting it. 

Of course, it is being used as propaganda to try and get Ukraine more weapons, despite the fact that Ukraine just got $61 billion in funding. Much of that funding isn't going to Ukraine though, much of it is to buy new weapons for the United States, not Ukraine. 

The begging for Patriot missile systems is very telling. Russia has control of the skies at this point and are able to drop KAB glide bombs on Ukrainian positions at will. Indeed, that is what they have been doing, deploy small infantry units to hold the enemy and drop dozens of KAB's on their positions until there is basically no cover left and then letting the infantry take the positions. 

Would Patriots help with that? Probably not. Russia has gotten pretty good at destroying Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems. Indeed, that's the reason why Ukraine needs new air defenses in the first place. Those systems have problems defending against hypersonic missiles and are often baited into firing at drones and then being hit by missiles. 

The problem for Ukraine though is not equipment, it's troops. They do not have anywhere near enough to actually fight Russia at this point. Indeed, Russia outnumbers Ukraine at this point, which wasn't true for much of the war and a major reason why Russia had difficulty before last year's summer offensive. Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near enough troops to stop Russia and it's too the point where units are not getting the rest they need to stay effective. I had to laugh at the line in the article that said the holes in Donetsk were going to be plugged with "fresh" troops when I doubt there is a fresh unit left in Ukraine. 

The real question is if this was just Ukraine pulling back due to a Russian breakthrough or if it's a start of a general collapse. Both are plausible. Ocheretino opened up a pathway behind their defensive lines and once breached those defenses were useless. It would make sense to pull back to better defensive lines instead of staying in positions that are vulnerable. If so that would mark a change in Ukrainian strategy because they have been infamous for holding positions long after they have become indefensible. Perhaps Ukraine has finally decided to try and trade territory for lives?

But it's also possible that Ukraine is facing serious problems with their troops wanting to fight. Ocheretino was a rout with troops refusing the fight to the city, just like what happened in Adveeka. Their troops are having demoralized and exhausted. Weapons are a problem as well as Ukraine just doesn't have the air defenses and armor to hold back Russia anymore. I think it's possible that we will just see a general collapse of Ukraine's fighting men before any of the aid from Congress arrives.