Nebraska may get rid of their electoral vote scheme.

 

270 to win graphic illustrating an outcome where the Omaha Nebraska district decides the election. 

Nebraska may get rid of their electoral vote scheme which some electoral votes are based on congressional district. CBS News. Nebraska is a very reliable red state but the Congressional district that includes Omaha has been more of a purple district, with Trump winning it in 2016 and Biden winning it in 2020. By changing the law the Republicans would win in a scenario where Trump won Nevada, Arizona and Georgia while Biden won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That would create a tie and would send the election to the House, which is currently controlled by Republicans. In response to that scenario, Nebraska has proposed a bill that would change the law so all electoral votes would be assigned by who wins the state alone. It is unclear if the bill will pass but Governor Jim Pillen and Donald Trump have said they support the idea. 

My Comment:

There's something to be said for awarding electoral votes by congressional district. Doing so would allow red areas of blue states and blue areas of red states to actually be politically relevant in presidential elections. This means that both sides would actually have to campaign in those areas and would have to pay attention to their needs. 

But it makes very little sense to use this system when only two states, Nebraska and Maine, use it. In both states there is a cross party congressional district that will reliably go to the other party. Omaha's is more likely to swing than Maine's but in both cases it's a likely electoral vote for the opposite party. 

Of course the problem is that I don't think Democrats would sit on their hands if Nebraska changed their laws. They control both houses of their legislature and the governor's office so I don't think it would be hard to change their law as well. Indeed, I think they will be paying very close attention and probably have a better chance at passing their law before the Republicans in Nebraska pass theirs. The Democrats are a lot more likely to actually do what is good for their electoral chances than the Republicans. 

Plus, given the fact that Republican control of Congress is extraordinarily thin thanks to a bunch of resignations and the fact that they bizarrely expelled George Santos, the vote in congress in a 269-269 tie might not go well either. It's very possible there would be defections and Biden could win despite the scenario being crafted so that could happen. 

A 269-269 tie is also the absolute worst outcome for the country as well. Both sides would view the election as illegitimate at that point. And whichever side that Congress doesn't choose would be infuriated to the point that a civil war could happen. That's a real possibility regardless, but I think the chances go up dramatically in a tie. 

I also don't see the scenario that ends with a tie decided by Omaha's congressional district being very likely. I think that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have a much better chance of going red than Arizona and Georgia going red given that elections in both states have been extraordinarily suspicious in 2020 and 2022. Nevada will probably go red too, so my guess is that the scenario will likely not play out this way. 

My guess is that the most likely scenario is not where Nebraska decides the election in a 269-269 tie. I think that it's likely that Maine will cancel out Nebraska's new law and we will be right back to a status quo ante. It's also very possible that nothing will come of this and the status quo will continue. But I think it's also more likely that Maine's Democrats pass their bill while Nebraska doesn't pass theirs so the Democrats get one more electoral vote, that probably won't matter either way.