The first US-made M1 Abrams tank destroyed near Avdeyevka is shown by the Russian Defence Ministry
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) April 29, 2024
The Russian MoD released footage of the destruction and evacuation of the American "legendary" tank, also showing photos of the pile of metal — all that was left of the "best tank… pic.twitter.com/uTqwruQEGq
My Comment:
The M1A1 debacle has been playing out for the last week or so and it's clear that the deployment was a failure. Why NAFO thought a small deployment of a 40 year old tank design, and not even the most modern version either, was going to change the outcome of the war is beyond me. If the Leopard and Challenger tanks, modern tanks from Germany and the UK, didn't change much, why would the Abrams?
So why did the Abrams fail? First of all, they barely sent any of them. 31 tanks is not going to do much in a war involving hundreds of tanks and thousands of vehicles. Second, the tanks are not going to have much to do when the war has switched from an offensive war to a defensive one. These tanks are meant for breaking Russian lines, but since Ukraine is on the retreat, they don't have much to do.
It's also clear that armor is a lot less useful than it used to be due to drones and high powered missiles. Ukraine is claiming these tanks were unable to do much against Russian drones, either because they were blowing them up or because they were instantly spotted. I think there is a lot of truth to that, neither side of the war has used tanks all that effectively. Indeed, for a long time the war had degraded into World War I tactics with trench warfare being the rule, not the exception. That is changing now due to Russia's air superiority and widespread use of KAB glide bombs, but it's clear that Ukraine is an infantry and artillery war.
The M1A1's in particular had some major issues as well. They are extremely heavy which is not good for famously muddy Ukraine. They are fuel hogs which makes them expensive and difficult to run. And they are also heavy on the maintenance, which Ukraine is probably not able to provide. The modernized M1A2's are even worse in this regard so it does raise the question, does the United States need a new main battle tank?
This is another example of western Wunderwaffen not actually having that much of an effect on Russia's war effort. It's also why that I don't think that the supposed delivery of F-16 falcons will do much either. F-16's are old tech too but Russia has the advantage in air power and air defenses. A few 4th generation fighters won't change anything and even if Ukraine got F-35's or F-22's it wouldn't matter much.
As for Russia's display of captured Western equipment, it is a humiliation. The M1 tank will be the biggest trophy, but far from the only. Most of the weapons we have sent there have been captured and destroyed and if we deploy F-16's, I am sure the same thing will happen again.
Finally, I do have to say that it's not western weapons Ukraine needs. We could give them all the weapons in the world but it won't matter if they don't have the troops to use and maintain them. Ukraine is running out of troops and won't be able go on the offensive again anytime soon, if ever. They still have enough troops to keep fighting but any new aid is probably going to be utterly wasted, barring some kind of divine intervention or an unprecedented collapse of Russia's armed forces or government, Ukraine will lose the war.
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