Pro-life demonstrators. BBC.
The Arizona Supreme Court has ruled that an 1864 law banning almost all abortion can go into effect. BBC. The law would ban all abortion except when the mother's life was at risk and would make it a felony to perform one with a penalty of two to five years in prison. The law superseded a more recent law that allowed abortion up to 15 weeks. It is unclear if the law will be enforced and the Court said that there would be a two week stay as the case was sent back to lower courts. The decision has major implications for the 2024 election as there may now be a proposal for a ballot measure that would re-legalize abortion. Senate candidate Kari Lake said she opposed the decision.
My Comment:
Abortion is not something I write about often since my own beliefs on the issue are esoteric and not strongly held. Unlike most people in the Republican Party, I don't have strong beliefs either way. I lean pro-life but that's probably tribalism more than anything else.
So why write about it? It's pretty clear that the Democrat's 2024 strategy is going to be about abortion. They are depending on the issue to spur turnout among their young female voters and the Supreme Court ruling against Roe v Wade. And that is what this ruling will do in Arizona as well.
Arizona is, ostensibly, a swing state and the idea is if that there is a ballot measure legalizing abortion then Democrats will turn out in droves to vote for it, energizing voters that are otherwise disgusted or disappointed in Joe Biden. That's the idea at least, there is a chance that it could backfire as it could turn out pro-life voters as well.
The whole thing could be moot if both sides in Arizona could come up with a compromise. The 2022 bill that this ruling canceled seemed like a good compromise, no abortions after 15 weeks but unlimited abortions before that. Neither side got what they wanted 100% but both sides got some of what they wanted. You would think that both sides would want to go from there but I don't see it. The pro-life people won't accept any abortion and the pro-choice won't accept any restrictions, and they also sense the political utility of the issue.
It's possible the lower courts will review this and end up reversing course and the Arizona Supreme Court could go long with it. But if that doesn't happen then Arizona is probably going to go blue. Out of all the swing states, Arizona was already the one I expected the Democrats to keep, even if all of the other ones go red. I don't trust the elections there at all, but it's possible that abortion could turn out the vote enough that the Democrats could win without cheating.
I do think that Donald Trump (and Kari Lake) understands that abortion is a losing issue for Republicans. Most people don't like the extreme position on either side and don't want abortion totally banned. They don't want abortion after birth either, but memories of that fiasco in Virginia are pretty old and the discussions about abortion bans are very fresh. Hence Trump making comments about ensuring that the big three exceptions (rape, incest and mother's health) and saying he won't call for a federal abortion ban.
Will it be enough? I don't know. Abortion could be the Achilles heel for Republicans in 2024. Most other indicators are very good for Trump and the Republicans. The economy is bad, foreign policy is a disaster, people are angry at just about every Biden policy and the Democrats are hemorrhaging voters from young people, blacks and hispanics. Abortion becoming a dominant issue won't fix those problems but it could increase turnout for single issue pro-choice voters...
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