Russia launches major attack on Avdiivka

 

An Ukrainian soldier in Avdiivka. BBC.

Russia has launched a major attack on Avdiivka, a critical city near Donetsk. BBC. At least three battalions of Russian troops are involved with the attack along with air and artillery support. Avdiivka is a critical city that threatens the city of Donetsk and Ukrainian control of the city has made Russia unable to take advantage of the city. Avdiivka is also important as a symbol for the Ukrainians, much like the city of Bakhmut, which eventually fell to the Russians. Russia is not attacking the city directly but is instead pushing to the north and south of it in an attempt to surround the city. Russia has increased offensive operations in the past weeks.  

My Comment:

Though the Israel-Hamas conflict has certainly stolen the headlines, the fact remains that the Russia-Ukraine war is entering a new phase. Ukraine's summer offensive has sputtered out and failed and now the Russians are on the offensive. And Avdiivka is their target. 

The BBC report is mostly accurate as to why the city is important. It is a major symbol for Ukraine and it does indeed threaten the city of Donetsk. I expect the Ukranians to defend it the same way they defended Bakhmut, even when it was clear that the battle was lost and continuing would be stupid. 

What the BBC leaves out is that Avdiivka has been used to attack Donetsk via artillery. Those attacks generally have little to do with militarily necessity, they are often targeting civilians. Russia obviously wants to stop these attacks on civilians so that's another major reason why they are pushing hard to take this city. 

The Russians have actually made quite a bit of progress in attacking the area with their attack in the north having more success than the others. They are running out of time though as Ukraine's mud season is rapidly approaching. Once that happens it will be very difficult to move up armor and artillery and it will probably cause the offensive to sputter out. 

But that might not be a bad thing for Russia. I can see them doing the exact thing they did in Bakhmut where they surround a large number of enemy troops in a "caldron" where not only are the troops in the city attacked by artillery but so are the supply lines. If the Ukrainians don't withdraw, which they won't due to the strategic and symbolic value of the city, they risk losing huge numbers of troops, troops they can ill afford. 

The war does not go well for Ukraine as they are likely to be cut off from support soon. That was a risk before the war in Israel broke out but now with the war happening much of what was earmarked for them will probably go to Israel instead. I am guessing, if they have any intelligence at all, they will stop offensive operations, withdraw to more defensible positions and try to wait out the Russians. Even if they did that they would still almost certainly lose but my guess is that they will still try to launch offensives even if they lack to troops, weapons and equipment to do so.