A soldier mans a machine gun on an armored vehicle with the Israeli flag visible. CBS News.
After launching a 2nd raid into Gaza Israel says they are "expanding their activity" in the region, which may be a prelude to an invasion proper. CBS News. The extent of this new activity is not know but US officials have said that it looks like a start of an invasion. The announcement comes after a 2nd raid into Gaza by Israeli armor which was supported by heavy airstrikes. No Israeli casualties were reported in the raid. Israel is being pressured to both stop the invasion by entities like the United States and UN and pick up the pace by relatives of the hostages taken by Hamas.
My Comment:
The usual suspects on Twitter were talking about this 2nd raid by Israel and they seem to have been totally disconnected from reality, saying Israel lost huge numbers of tanks and other armor and took heavy casualties. Israel says they took no casualties whatsoever, so someone was lying, and I don't think it was Israel. They really aren't in a position to lie about casualties.
I do think that the invasion is finally getting underway. Biden tried to delay it but I think Israel is fed up and they are facing immense pressure from the survivors families to try and recover the hostages. I think the offensive is going to happen and it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
However, I doubt any hostages will be recovered alive. Indeed, I think a lot of them are dead already and if they aren't they could be easily killed once Israel arrives. If they are lucky Israel might save a few hostages but I doubt they will save many.
Indeed, Israel is facing a very difficult combat environment. Urban combat is always difficult, even after much of the area has been reduced to ruble. Add into that the fact that all of Gaza is riddled with tunnels and you have a recipe for heavy casualties. I've read a lot about the Vietnam war and I remember how difficult it was for US soldiers to clear out NVA and VC occupied tunnels. Gaza is even worse and even with the massive airstrikes Israel has launched I don't see them having an easy time.
Israel in theory could still back off. Biden is of course pushing for them to do so along with many other groups like the UN. But I don't see that happening while Hamas still holds Israelis hostage and are launching raids and rockets at Israel. They have to do something to respond and airstrikes and drones aren't going to cut it.
The real problem is that Israel cannot afford a long war. They have called up their reserves and those folks are the core of Israel's economic activity. They can't simply shut down the country for a long war with Gaza, eventually those reservists will have to go back to work. I think that this attack will be more about killing the leadership of Hamas, destroying their weapons and then pulling back out.
Also complicating things is nobody knows how Iran and their proxies are going to react. They were caught flatfooted by the Hamas attack like everyone else but they have stepped up attacks, with militias attacking US forces in Syria, Hezbollah getting into skirmishes in Lebanon and even the Yemeni Houthi rebels launching missiles, the last of which hit Egypt instead of Israel.
If Israel launches a major invasion, Iran might order their proxies to step up their attacks and that would complicate things for Israel dramatically. Do they have enough forces to not only invade Gaza but to defend against Hezbollah and the Houthis? Not to mention the ever present threat from the West Bank as well.
What I don't see is the conflict spilling over into a World War III scenario. I don't see Iran attacking Israel directly and I don't see America getting directly involved in the conflict either. We are bombing Iranian militias that are attacking our forces in Syria but that's status quo ante. I guess there is a tiny chance of something stupid happening but I just don't see a major war coming from this.
No comments:
Post a Comment