Syria and Israel hold high level talks after airstrikes.

 

A Syrian Soldier manning a machine gun at the disused Abu Duhar airbase. AFP.

Syria and Israel held high level talks after Israel bombed a disused airbase in Northern Syria. AFP. Israel bombed the Abu Duhar airbase in Northern Syria in an effort to deny the base from Turkey. Turkey denied it was going to take the airbase. Tensions between Israel and Turkey are high and the strikes are the most recent strike among hundreds since the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime. The talks, which was brokered by the United States and hosted by Jordan. Syria is an ally of Turkey but tensions between Turkey and Israel have left Syria in the crossfire. 

My Comment:

These talks were moderately successful. Israel and Syria seem to have made some progress, but not so much that tensions went down all that much. It does seem that Syria wants a security agreement with Israel, but the absolutely terrible relationship between Turkey and Israel is complicating things dramatically. 

Indeed, the entire incident was based on the fact that Israel attacked an airbase just because they suspected that Turkey was going to use it. If there was any real relationship between Turkey and Israel at all, then that absolutely would not happen. Indeed, we aren't even sure that Turkey was going to actually use the airbase. 

It fits a habit that Israel has fallen into. They often tend to strike first and ask questions later. It's one of the reasons why tensions are high with Turkey and in the region generally. I can understand why they wouldn't want a regional rival take an airbase that could be used to strike Israel's interests, but the evidence that Turkey was going to do so is pretty difficult to prove. 

Why are tensions so high between Turkey and Israel in the first place? It goes back to the October 7th attacks and the Gaza war that resulted. Turkey and Israel traded diplomatic insults since then, with Erdogan calling Netanyahu "Hitler" while Israel recognized the Armenian Genocide. I have to say that i think the Israelis were right, given that Hamas are terrorists and are hardly the "freedom fighters" that Turkey calls them. 

Things have gotten worse, not better, since Iran was humbled in the Iran conflict. There was a power vacuum that resulted from the conflict that both Israel and Turkey have tried to take advantage of. Both countries want to lead the Middle East and both are making major diplomatic push to do so. 

And Syria? They got caught in the crossfire. Syria is the buffer zone between the two countries. Turkey has a lot of influence over the Syrian's new former jihadist government and is arming and training them. But Israel does not want to end the progress it made by simply letting Turkey replace Iran. Israel has a long history of dealing with terror attacks coming from Syrian territory, and does not want Turkey to become the new Hezbollah. 

Regardless, it's not surprising that the Untied States is trying to ease tensions. We are in the unfortunate position of being allied with both Israel and Turkey. Israel was our partner in the Iran conflict and we provide them with billions of dollars in aid. Turkey is the largest member of NATO after the United States and is, arguably, the one with the most competent military.  

ISIS fighters escape from Syrian prison due to fighting between the Syrian government and the Kurdish SDF.

 

A Syrian government soldier stands outside the prison. Al Jazeera/AFP.

ISIS fighters escaped from a Syrian prison due to fighting between the Syrian government and the Kurdish Syria Defense Force (SDF). Al Jazeera. An unknown number of fighters escaped the prison and both sides are blaming the other for the release. The Syrian regime says that the prisoners were released on purpose by the Kurds while the Kurds say that the prisoners escaped during fighting. The fighting stopped after a ceasefire deal was reached between the Syrian Government and the SDF, which would require the SDF to pull out from Arab dominated areas, including Raqqa and Dier ez Zor and would integrate their forces into the Syrian military. Thousands of ISIS fighters are still held by the Kurds after the defeat of the terror group in Syria in 2019. 

My Comment:

This is a very concerning situation. These are hardened ISIS fighters and as many as 1500 of them may have escaped. How many of them is unclear at this point, 1500 is the upper limit but the Syrian government says it's fewer than that. Either way, any of these fighters escaping is not a good thing, let alone 1500 of them. 

Given the numbers of terrorists that got out and the fact that other prisons could fall as well, there is a chance that ISIS could have a comeback due to this escape. ISIS fighters have taken advantage of local chaos before and they could do so again. 

My real fear though is that these ISIS fighters could make their way to Europe. ISIS has, of course, used Europe's weak borders as a way to get terrorists into the region and has resulted in several major attacks, most notably the 2015 Paris attacks and the 2016 Brussels bombing. There is a chance, albeit a small one, that this could happen again. 

However, there are some things that make it unlikely. The most obvious is that ISIS is largely a spent force, they control no territory in Syria and have no tax base to fund attacks. That could change if these ISIS fighters were to take some territory, exploiting the instability between the SDF and the government, but right now it's not the case. And Europe has tightened up their border controls a bit so it would be more difficult to infiltrate than it once was. 

The good news is that the fighting in Syria might be dying down. The whole conflict is between the SDF and the Syrian regime and they just announced a fragile cease fire and a plan to integrate the Kurds into the Syrian government. It's unclear if it will hold, the SDF has a lot of PKK communists that don't want peace with the Syrian regime. I would hope that even they would understand that fighting that ends up with released ISIS fighters is a bad thing. 

US Destroyer shoots down drones and missiles launched from Yemen while drones attack US troops in Syria.

 

The USS Carney in Istanbul. Reuters.

The American Destroyer, USS Carney, has shot down several drones and missiles launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen towards Israel. Reuters. The attack involved three cruise missiles and several drones. The Carney was stationed in the Red Sea and was in the pathway of the missiles, but is not believed to be the target for the attack. The US Navy has deployed significant forces to the region, including two carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean. 

In Syria, the al-Tanf garrison came under attack by drones. AP. One drone was shot down by forces on the ground but the other drone was able to cause minor injuries to American troops on the ground. Al-Tanf is located on the border with Jordan and is near supply routes that Iran has used to supply Hezbollah. Drone strikes have been hitting US bases in both Syria and Iraq. 

My Comment:

It looks like the war between Israel and Hamas is becoming a much larger regional conflict. Both of these attacks show a significant increase of who is actually involved in the conflict. Both the Houthi rebels and Iran's militias appear to be involved in the conflict now. 

I was actually surprised that the Houthis were able to launch missiles targeting Israel. I was aware that they had the Burkan 2 ballistic missiles, but they do not have the range to hit Israel. They do have a few Burkan-3 missiles but I wasn't aware they had cruise missiles, which this attack appears to have been. That means that the Houthis are actually a threat to Israel and given that there is a cease fire between them and Saudi Arabia they can launch all of them without worrying about what the Saudis do. 

Are they a real threat to Israel? Not really. These cruise missiles are small and vulnerable to anti-air defenses like the USS Carney just proved. The drones and ballistic missiles could be more of a threat but the drones are vulnerable to air defenses and I don't know that Yemen has too many Burkan missiles left. Even if some missiles and/or drones get through what they could actually accomplish is limited. Still, it's more pressure on Israel at a time where they can't really afford it. 

The attack on US bases in Syria in Iraq are probably more significant. The attack on al-Tanf was the only one that resulted in any injuries but it was far from the only one. Many bases came under attack by these drones and though they aren't that big of a threat they could be a prelude to bigger attacks. Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias have attacked and even killed American troops. Such a thing is very possible. 

Why are these militias attacking places like al-Tanf? I think they are trying to move weapons to the border with Israel and wanted to disrupt al-Tanf so they couldn't do the same to the Iranian convoys. I do think that Hezbollah will be launching attacks into Israel if a land invasion happens. Since the US is on the same side as Israel it makes sense that they would try and prevent weapons from getting to the border. 

These attacks were very minor but it does show that Iran is getting more involved in the war. I don't think they will join the war directly, that would risk the invocation of the Samson Option. Iran does not want to see Tehran get nuked so they will be limited to using their proxies. Both the Houthis and Hezbollah are unofficial Iranian troops and there is at least some plausible deniability if they attack Israel. 

It also appears very likely that America will get dragged into this conflict whether we like it or not. Biden was begging for money for Israel and Ukraine today with his speech (that I didn't watch) and it seems pretty clear that Biden's willing to attack Iranian proxies. I don't really have a problem against limited strikes if US troops are on the line but what I worry about is Biden attacking government troops in Syria or even striking Iran directly. Biden's absolutely not all there and he is a bit of a warmonger in the best of times and I do not trust him to do the right thing on this issue.