US is trying to delay Israel's offensive in order to secure more hostages.

 

Israeli vehicles, including a self propelled Howitzer. New York Post/EPA.

The United States is trying to delay Israel's offensive against Hamas in order to secure more hostages. New York Post. 200 hostages were taken by Hamas but it is unclear how many of them are still alive. Hamas released two American hostages on Friday and the Biden administration hopes more of the 10 Americans reported taken will be released. Israel is pressing the offensive though as they do not support a cease fire. They have been stepping up air and artillery attacks in preparation for the invasion. 

My Comment:

Israel's offensive has been delayed so long that many people are wondering, me included, if it is even going to happen now. The longer they wait the harder it will be to justify it to the international community. Hamas is still a threat but the memories of what they did on the 6th are already starting to fade. 

I do think that the Biden Administration is not acting in Israel's best interests. I understand wanting to rescue hostages but by doing so they are playing into the hands of Hamas. They know that the longer the offensive is delayed the better chances they have to, if not defeat Israel, ensure their long term survival. If the offensive is canceled they will be able to regroup, rearm and possibly launch even more attacks against Israel. And every day it is delays is to the advantage of Hamas. 

Indeed, I think Hamas knows this and that's the only reason they released the two American citizens they did. They know that Biden wants to pressure Israel and I doubt they have any motivation to release any more hostages. They just want to distract the Biden administration like a baby with a set a house keys. They might release one or two more but I don't see much beyond that. 

I am guessing a large number of the hostages are dead. Some of them were injured while they were captured while others may have been tortured or even raped to death. How many of them are still alive are is an open question but I am guessing most of them are long gone. 

There is an argument to be made that Israel invading Gaza could backfire on them. Urban combat, and all of Gaza is an urban area, is extremely difficult. So is fighting in tunnels and all of Gaza is riddled with tunnels. And the rubble they are creating? It makes for difficult combat as a path has to be cleared for armor to move through the streets and gives lots of cover for enemy infantry. I am expecting heavy casualties, though not quite on the scale of the battles seen in Ukraine. Keep in mind, Russia and Ukraine were near peer adversaries while Hamas and Israel are not, Israel has the technology advantage. 

The other problem is that Israel is damaging their economy by having all their reservists called up. Most of those soldiers are young and are the people that drive the economy. Having them sitting around doing nothing waiting for an offensive that might not even come is not a great move and Israel will be facing extreme pressure to either attack or stand down. 

It almost makes me wonder if that's the point for the Biden administration. Biden seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth on Israel, he says he supports them but urges restraint and demands a delay to the offensive. He's moved major forces into the area but has given zero indication that he will actually help Israel when it comes down to it. And he says he wants peace but it's China and Russia that are talking to Israel and the Arab nations that surround it. I know that hostages are a consideration as well, but it's hard to figure out what Biden's actual goals are, assuming he has any. 

Finally, nobody is quite sure what Hezbollah is going to do. So far there have been skirmishes between them and Israel and between them and US bases as well. It seems clear that they are not going to invade Israel directly but if Israel does attack Gaza they could launch major missile and rocket attacks which would endanger the northern front. With major forces committed to Gaza it would limit what Israel could do in response. 

Regardless, the offensive is up in the air at this point. With the Biden administration pressuring Israel they could delay things indefinitely and there is a good chance it doesn't even happen. Should the attack happen there is a real chance the delay could make the offensive fail. This entire thing is a huge mess.