Did Iran have a role in planning the Hamas attack against Israel?

 

Iran's leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reuters.

Iran has denied having a role in the planning of the Hamas attack against Israel. Reuters. Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran had no involvement in the attack but praised the planners of it and said it did irreparable damage to Israel's military and intelligence services. Iran does provide monetary support to Hamas and has given them weapons. The United States blamed Iran for the attack but did not provide evidence that they actually helped. 

For their part, Hamas denies that Iran had a role in planning the attack on Israel. AP. Ali Barakeh, an exiled leader of Hamas, said that only a few top commanders knew anything about the attack and that Iran was not filled in. Barakeh also said that Iran and Hezbollah, Iran's proxy army, would join the war if Gaza faced antihalation. 

US intelligence officials say that Iranian officials were surprised by the attack. CBS News. The intel officials made the statements to multiple news agencies. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Iran was still responsible for the attack due to providing training and support to Hamas but did not say that Iran had anything directly to do with the attack. 

My Comment:

A lot of people are blaming Iran for this attack and are even suggesting we go to war with Iran because of it. But there doesn't seem to be any direct evidence that Iran was involved in the planning of the Hamas attack at all. 

To be fair, everyone knows that Iran sends help to Gaza and Hamas. They have provided weapons, supplies and training to members of Hamas and may be a major reason why Hamas was so well equipped during this attack. Given the actions of Hamas they are obviously one of the bad guys in this situation. 

But the idea that Iran planned the attack appears to be totally false. Indeed, that should have been incredibly obvious due to the total lack of participation of Iran's proxy army, Hezbollah. Hezbollah did not participate in the attack and had to scramble to launch a minor artillery attack one day after the attack. Hezbollah has stepped up efforts since then but they have not been mobilized fully and are far from joining Hamas in attacks on Israel. Had Iran known about the attack I can't see them not joining the war on day one. 

Given that Iran, Hamas and US intelligence services are all saying the same thing I think the idea that Iran was involved in the planning of the attack is pretty much debunked at this point. They certainly deserve some culpability for giving assistance to Hamas, but that's about as far as I would go. 

With that being said, I do think it's very possible that Hezbollah will join the war. Indeed, they are skirmishing with Israel already. They have had a few artillery duels and have also destroyed an Israeli APC. 

Footage of the Islamic Resistance's operation in the occupied #Lebanese town of Salha, in which they targeted an Israeli Zelda armored personnel carrier at al-Sadah site West of the town.#Palestine #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/ZTksoerA71

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) October 10, 2023

Iran might just decide to join the war, either via their proxies or with their own weapons. Hezbollah is already kind of involved but they could fully mobilize and attack northern Israel in force, which would open another front for the Israelis and cause some serious damage. It's also possible that the Yemeni Houthi rebels could join the war as well. Iran has provided them with a large number of ballistic missiles. Those missiles, the Burkan 2, do not have the range to hit Israel from Yemen directly, but they could be shipped somewhere, like Lebanon or Syria where they could easily hit Israel. That would take a considerable amount of time and effort though. 

If Iran does decide to join the war the question if they were involved in the planning becomes rather moot. Once they are a party to the war then Israel can strike them as well, though one wonders how the two countries would attack each other directly given the large number of countries between them. I would assume that they could ferry troops from Iran via Iraq and Syria but they would be vulnerable to air strikes. 

None of this is very good. If Iran does join the war it could draw other groups into the war, including the United States. The last thing we need is a major war right now, especially when our weapons stocks are so depleted due to very unwisely funding the insane war against Russia in Ukraine.