Ukraine funding from the United States might be cut off...

 

Joe Biden. AP. 

Ukraine funding from the United States might be cut off due to fights in congress. AFP. In the deal to keep the government open no funding was earmarked for Ukraine. Joe Biden expects a new deal that will be voted on separately but there are several complications. First of all House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy will likely force funding for Ukraine to be dependent on new money to deal with the border crisis, which could kill any chance of a new funding bill. Second, Kevin McCarthy could end up being removed for making the funding deal in the first place as members of his party feel it was a betrayal since he worked with Democrats to pass it. Finally, new polling says that a plurality of Americans are saying we have done enough for Ukraine, at 41%, though people that say we have done the right amount and not enough had a majority when combined. 

My Comment:

It seems very clear that the west is getting less and less patient with the war in Ukraine. This happens around the same time that Slovakia elected an anti-Ukraine government. It's very possible that Poland may end up doing the same thing in their upcoming election. People across the world are sick and tired of sending money to Ukraine. 

Much of this is due to the fact that Ukraine's much vaunted and hyped offensive did next to nothing. The offensive took all summer to essentially reach the first line of Russian defenses and never made it much further than that, and that was only in one small sector of the front. To do so they lost much of their donated equipment and took horrendous casualties. People are right to question funding the war when it seems clear it's just sending good money after bad. 

As far as congress goes, I have no idea what would happen. There are a lot of neocons in both parties that are both almost religious in their support of Ukraine they are also personally enriched by the war continuing. It's very possible that some kind of deal will be able be made. Indeed, I am guessing that Joe Biden will be using whatever political capital he has left to push a deal on Congress. 

I do think that the border funding could be a sticking point. I don't think there is any way that the Republicans will vote for a bill that doesn't have funding for the border and I also don't think there is any way that the Democrats would vote for a bill that has it. The border issue is an imposed problem and enemy action and not something that the Democrats are willing to stop. 

As far as McCarthy being removed, I don't really see that happening. Matt Gaetz and the other GOP rebels probably don't have the votes given that Democrats will probably vote for McCarthy as well. If he does get removed then all bets are off as his replacement might be a lot more anti-Ukraine than even Gaetz. 

So what happens to Ukraine if funding is indeed cut off? I don't see Ukraine surviving. It's not just the military that the American taxpayer is propping up, it's the entire government. At the very least what is left of Ukraine's economy will collapse and the military should do the same quite quickly. Once the government is unable to pay for the troops, they simply won't fight anymore. And, assuming some kind of peace deal isn't made, Russia should be able to take over fairly quickly. 

I do wonder if this isn't a planned thing by the Biden administration. They know, or should know at this point, that the Ukraine war is lost. They know if they draw out the war into 2024 they will have to fully accept blame for the failure of the war. But if the Republicans cut off funding? Then they can blame Republicans for the failure, despite the fact that the Democrats essentially launched the war in the first place.