Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Israel launches massive airstrikes in preparation for ground invasion.

 

Palestinians inspect the damage in Gaza City. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

Israel has launched massive airstrikes in Gaza in preparation for a ground invasion. Fox News. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that they had only just begun to hit Hamas targets in response to their offensive. Netanyahu said what they would do in Gaza would "reverberate for generations". Israel has given warning to civilians in Gaza as they strike targets in the enclave. Hamas has said they will execute hostages in response to further airstrikes. Israel has said that most Hamas militants have been driven out of their territory and that they have secured all border towns that Hamas had occupied. They claim to have killed 1500 militants in Israel alone. 

My Comment:

The war in Israel continues to rage. It's very clear that this isn't going to be like previous wars between Israel and its enemies. The gloves appear to be off and Israel is going to destroy anything that looks like a threat. The damage that is being done in Gaza is extreme. 

I'm not surprised that the gloves are off now, Hamas went full ISIS in Israel if reports are to believed. What is undeniable is that a large number of innocent civilians were murdered in cold blood, raped or kidnapped and that means that there is going to be retribution. I'm not sure I believe all reports of atrocities, the report about a bunch of babies being decapitated seems so over the top I'd don't buy it, but it's clear that a lot of evil things happened during the Hamas offensive. 

Support mostly seems to be on Israel's side. That's not universal, there are a lot of people on the political fringes that do support Hamas or at least Palestine. But those people are getting drowned out and are in a position that is extremely hard to defend due to Hamas and their actions. The media appears to be very much on the side of Israel. 

This is good news for Israel as it will give them cover to do whatever they want in Gaza. I don't think things are going to be pretty there. Though Israel is providing warning to civilians before they bomb, realistically a lot of civilians are going to be caught in the crossfire in this bombing campaign. And things will get even worse when Israel invades Gaza. 

I really don't know if they will keep the general level of support they have now. Their campaign in Gaza is going to be very tough on civilians and could end with a lot of people dead. And some of those people might be killed on purpose, given the circumstances. I am guessing that some people in the IDF are going to want revenge for what has happened and when that happens I expect Hamas to use it as propaganda. 

I personally don't really like either side in this war but I have never had much sympathy for the Palestinians, largely because they act with massive brutality at one moment but then play the victim after Israel strikes back. I'm not too fond of Israel either since this is a problem of their own making. Any sane society would either kill, remove or integrate the people of the land they conquer and Israel's refusal to do so has ensured that the region would be destabilized to this degree. Still, Israel's behavior is a lot less brutal and a lot more understandable than Hamas, so I'm not exactly on their side. They strike me as being similar to the Syrian Civil War, with it not being a black and white conflict, but a grey vs black, with Israel being morally grey while Hamas being almost as morally black as ISIS was. 

As for the invasion itself, I don't know how well it will go. Israel is doing a lot of damage to Hamas but they are also causing massive amounts of destruction. The combat environment that will cause when the IDF invades is not going to be good. Urban fighting is tough enough as it is. It gets a lot worse when you are fighting in ruble. 

Plus, the Ukraine conflict shows how utterly deadly modern combat is. Hamas is not a near-peer when it comes to Israel, but they do appear to be fairly well equipped. There is already footage out there of Hamas destroying a Merkava tank with a drone and a bomb and I am guessing they can do the same thing since drones are pretty cheap. 

It does look like Hamas is going to be completely cut off from the rest of the world. Obviously all the border crossing with Israel are closed and Israel has largely destroyed the crossing into Egypt. They are even claiming to have destroyed the tunnels that Hamas has used to smuggle things in from Egypt for years now. 

The biggest question now is what Hezbollah does. They have already had some skirmishes but if they attack in force then Israel might be in trouble. Even with the 300,000 reservists they have mobilized they would be hard pressed to fight a war on two fronts. Hezbollah is also a more formidable army than Hamas and are battle hardened due to fighting in the Syrian Civil War. If they join the war then things will get a lot tougher. 

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