West Virginia Governor Jim Justice has announced he is running for the Senate seat currently held by Joe Manchin. ABC News. He will be running against Representative Alex Mooney in the primary. It is unclear if he will face Manchin or not. Manchin, the long term and popular Democrat Senator, has not announced if he will run for another term, retire or even run for President. Manchin is one of the few remaining conservative Democrats left in power and he is seen as the only credible candidate that could keep the seat for the party. Picking up the seat would change the balance of power between the Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, especially with Ohio and Montana expected to be GOP pickups in 2024. However, Justice is fairly popular in the state as well and could actually beat Manchin. However, Justice is no lock to be the candidate as Alex Mooney is also fairly popular and has support from the party. Manchin has said he will not decide if he is going to run until December of this year.
My Comment:
I've been aware of Jim Justice for quite some time as he famously changed parties in 2017. He was elected as a Democrat but the party left behind. In that way he is a lot like Joe Manchin. There have always been rumors that Joe Manchin would eventually turn from being the most conservative Democrat in the Senate to being the most liberal Republican, but alas it never happened. And now Manchin might be out of a job.
Of course we have no idea if Manchin is going to run or not. It's very possible he does but he's just as likely to retire. And he could indeed be a presidential candidate, and viable one as well. Manchin would have appeal for blue dog Democrats and cross party appeal for people that want a more centrist candidate than Biden but aren't interested in Donald Trump. Manchin would have zero appeal for progressives (which is a point in his favor in my mind) so that probably limits his realistic chances of being President, though I am guessing there will be an "anyone but Biden" candidate. But then again, the last conservative Democrat to run in a Presidential Race, Jim Webb, did not do well at all.
If Manchin does retire than it hardly matters who the GOP candidate is. I can't imagine that the Democrats could find someone credible to replace him. West Virginia tolerates Manchin because he's fairly conservative and because of the power of incumbency. They also like that he argues with the Biden administration. I can't imagine that anyone else in all of West Virginia would have that kind of advantage.
If he runs though? It's a real question if he would keep the seat or not. Manchin is still popular but Justice and Mooney are as well. And given the backlash against the Democrats it's very possible that Machin's incumbency and relatively conservative beliefs won't help him. My guess is that if Manchin stays in the race the race is a toss up but if he doesn't the seat is an incredibly easy win for the Republicans.
It's very possible that the seat could be the one that decides control of the senate. Right now the Senate is under control of the Democrats by a 51-49 margin (counting the Independents as Democrats). The Republicans only need two seats to win back the Senate and if Manchin doesn't run then the Republicans only need to win one more seat. With Ohio and Montana likely pickups as well it's very possible that if the Republicans win the White House they would have all three centers of power, plus the Supreme Court in 2024.
The real question is if Joe Manchin cares about that. He probably does not given how angry he has been with the Biden Administration. He might just be tired of it all or he might be out for revenge. If Manchin runs for President then we know that Biden angered him enough for him to try and take him down personally...
No comments:
Post a Comment