Biden's team does not have confidence in the much ballyhooed "Ukrainian offensive".

 

A Ukrainian soldier. Politico/Getty. 

The Biden administration is quietly expressing doubt that a proposed summer Ukrainian offensive will succeed. Politico. The offensive is rumored to target the east or the south but it is unclear if such an offensive is even possible anymore. The failure of the offensive would cause major criticism for the Biden administration, both from warhawks who think Ukraine should get more equipment and critics of the war that don't think that the war can be won by Ukraine, along with US allies in the region that are tired of the war and want a political solution. Leaked documents from the Pentagon showed internal assessments saying that Ukraine would fall well short of its offensive goals. The idea that they could push Russia out of Crimea or overwhelm strong Russian defense in the East is not really supported in the intelligence community. Some are calling for a cease fire or a negotiated settlement for and end of the war. 

My Comment:

This admission should be shocking to people who only get their news from the media. To them Ukraine is winning the war and is only a couple of F-16's and obsolete tanks away from driving the Russians all the way back to Moscow. 

In reality I'm not even convinced that the offensive is even going to happen given how utterly stupid of an idea it would be. Attacking an entrenched enemy that has a major advantage in both air support and artillery is not something that is going to succeed. And from what I have seen from the leaked documents is that the offensive would only be made up of 30,000 men, not enough to face the hundreds of thousands the Russians have. 

And the troop quality is not going to be up to snuff either. If you have been reading any articles about the Ukraine war if they quote troops, you can expect that the soldiers will be in their 40's and 50's, sometimes even the 60's. And Ukraine is dragging people off the streets to be thrown into the meatgrinder in Bakhmut with almost no training whatsoever. They still have a core of competent soldiers left over from the pre-war period, but many of them are injured and all of them are overworked. Either this offensive would be made up of more old men and conscripts or they are going to throw away their best troops for very little gain. 

It would also play right into the Russian's war strategy. I've said this so many times but it never seems to sink in, this is a war of attrition. Russia's goal isn't to take or hold territory, it's to destroy men and equipment. They probably could have captured Bakhmut months ago but they are instead just pounding the Ukrainian soldiers their into dust. I could see Russia pulling back a bit when the offensive starts, if the offensive starts, and then using the salient that would be created as yet another cauldron to destroy Ukrainian forces.  

Which is why I think that the offensive will not happen. Indeed, they have a built in excuse now, they can simply say that the leaks from the Pentagon derailed the whole thing. Oops, sorry, can't launch the offensive now, the Russians know everything. And then they will probably launch a small attack that takes another small village and costs them 10,000 more casualties while all the NATO shills clap and bark like seals saying that Ukraine will win the war. 

As for the war itself, I'm not expecting it to end soon. Why would Russia end it? Europe is bankrupting themselves over the war and even America's economy is taking damage. Hungry might leave NATO and the resistance to the war is getting more traction. NATO has thrown about everything they have into the war and have little to show for it. 

The best time to end the war was in the early months of the war but the Biden administration torpedoed that. Even late last year Ukraine was in a better position to the point where they probably could have kept much of their territory. But now? Russia has zero reason to end the war at this point and every reason to continue the war...