The Pentagon is panicked after a major document leak exposed a large number of secrets, including ones related to the Ukraine war. Politico. The documents have spread throughs social media over the past weeks and are the most robust leak since the Edward Snowden case. In addition to information about the Ukraine war, some of the leaked materials involved US efforts to spy on South Korea and Turkish cooperation for Israel. The Defense Department also does not know if there will be more leaks. It is unclear how many of the documents are accurate.
The leaks originated from a Discord chatroom. AP. The leaks were posted on a Discord discussion room called "Thug Shaker Central" and were posted during debates on the Ukraine war. The documents then spread to other chatrooms and reached the wider internet. A member of the Discord group said the leaker was not motivated by efforts to embarrass the government or to expose secrets, but to simply impress the other members of the group.
The leaked documents show many weaknesses of the Ukrainian military. NBC News. One of the analysis's posted claims that Ukraine will run out of air defense missiles completely by May, giving Russia total air superiority, which would dramatically limit actions by Ukraine. Ukraine's air defenses have been impressive and had been one of their few remaining advantages and forced Russia to avoid Ukrainian air space to avoid casualties.
My Comment:
I find this whole situation hilarious. Some random defense worker got worked up in a Discord chat and decided he was going to not only risk his career but even his life just to win an argument about the Ukraine War. It wasn't for noble reasons or for money, but because he was butthurt about an internet argument. What a joke.
The reaction to these documents has been entertaining. Just about everyone mentioned in them is embarrassed. Both Ukraine and Russia had some dirty laundry revealed and both of them are claiming the documents are fake (while Ukraine at the same time says they are changing battle plans because of the leak). And they aren't the only countries affected! The whole thing is a massive embarrassment.
It's very unclear how much of the documents are real and how accurate they are. It's very possible that all the documents are real, but may be factually incorrect. I personally don't buy for a second the claims that Russia has taken more casualties than Ukraine, that makes zero sense, but it is something that the intel community repeats as if it has any basis in reality.
The anti-aircraft missile issue is a pretty huge deal. Russia has indeed been pretty reluctant to risk their air forces over Ukraine due to how advanced and effective Ukraine's anti-air batteries are. They have been facing attrition for a long time though and I think it's very possible that they are indeed running out of missiles.
And it's not like these weapons are easy to replace. Western anti-air weapons are not as effective and there aren't nearly enough of them to replace the losses. And it's not like there is an unlimited supply of them either. My guess is that Ukraine will shortly lose their biggest advantage in the war and Russia will gain air superiority.
I personally have not been able to review these documents. For supposedly being everywhere I haven't seen too much on any of the social media sites I am on. And I go on some of the less mainstream websites like 4chan and even there I haven't seen much. From what I understand they are mostly being spread on Telegram, a social media platform popular in eastern Europe and is used by both Russians and Ukrainians. Like discord it's a chat app and I usually have zero interest in those but perhaps I should sign up? Seems like important stuff is going on there these days.
I do think that whoever leaked these documents is pretty screwed. I honestly think he should try to get out of the country as soon as possible. But given that these documents do not appear to have been released for any political reason and that it has pissed off just about everyone, I don't know where they would go. All I know is if they get caught they will have hell to pay.
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