Saturday, April 22, 2023

Public pessimism on the economy reaches record highs.

 

Approval rates for Joe Biden among Democrats and Independents. CNBC. 

Public pessimism on the economy has reached a record high in a new survey. CNBC. CNBC's All-American Economic Survey found 69% of respondents saying they had a negative view of the economy, which is the highest recorded in the survey's 17 year history. Two thirds of respondents said that their wages are not keeping up with inflation and that the economy is either already in a recession or heading towards one. The bad economic outlook has affected Biden's approval numbers. The only signs of positivity is that 63% of people are not worried about losing their jobs. However, a whopping 81% of people said they altering their spending to deal with the economic situation. 

My Comment:

I am surprised that people are as optimistic as they are. I am guessing that the 31% of people that aren't negative about the economy are either deep in denial or insulated by wealth that they aren't noticing it as much as everyone else. But for normal people, they are absolutely feeling the squeeze. 

Indeed, I myself just put off a major purchase due to concerns about the economy. I was supposed to buy a new phone today to replace my aging but still functional iPhone 8 Plus. But I was thinking to myself "can I really justify a new phone right now" and the answer ended up no. I will probably buy one soon eventually but after I've worked a few more overtime shifts to better pay for it. 

And I can absolutely say that my wages are not keeping up with inflation. I'm confident I will get another pay raise this year but with inflation it probably won't matter much. Inflation is down from it's peak but it's still over 5% and my pay raise is probably going to be around 3% (just like it was last year). That's not even treading water, it's falling behind and I'm lucky enough to be getting a raise in the first place! A lot of people don't have that security blanket like I do. 

I personally am not worried about losing my job, even though my company is not doing as well as it was under Trump. Even in a bad economy people will still need our product. But I am not sure if other people should feel so confident. We are already seeing mass layoffs in the tech industry and I wouldn't be surprised if it happens to other industries as well. 

One thing I didn't see mentioned is the absurd housing costs. I know I have seen my rent skyrocket and I'm also actively looking for a house and have been for a couple years now. I can tell you there is nothing more discouraging to save up tens of thousands of dollars and feel like you are treading water in terms of getting closer to purchasing a house. And then you hear something like this and it just makes you want to scream. 

Biden's asking someone like me, that has worked hard, made good financial decisions and managed my money well, to pay more for a home loan than people that have done the opposite. It's a total slap in the face and it just makes home ownership even further out of reach, to the point that it probably won't happen unless something major changes. That thing probably being the inevitable collapse of the economy... 

What really gets me is that there are still people that approve of Joe Biden. 39% of people in this survey still approve of the job he is doing and that is just baffling to me. I know some people are getting spoils from the Biden administration but those people are so few in number and dwindling every day. I know a lot of people didn't like Trump for his personality but I find it hard to believe that there are many people out there that aren't dramatically worse off now under Biden then they ever were with him. 

What's worse is there really isn't a silver lining for the Biden administration, much of the damage they are doing is either going to be difficult to reverse or impossible. The energy costs alone are not going down anytime soon giving how Biden has infuriated every oil producing nation in the world. Biden's been so abrasive that even Saudi Arabia and Iran have gotten together and put down their swords to face their common enemy. And more and more countries are turning to Russia and China for economic security. 

And I think everything is going to get worse before it gets better, which is another reason why I'm worried about the economy. Part of me is thinking I should be making big purchases now because it's very possible things won't be available in the future. If inflation truly gets out of control my money that I have saved could end up being pretty much worthless. But at the same time if inflation continues to outpace wages I might simply not be able to afford my bills. And that's me, who has been very good at managing my money, has cheap hobbies, lives in an inexpensive state and has no kids to take care of. I don't know how people on the margins are going to do it and I think a lot of people will drop out of the working classes and into abject poverty if things don't change. 

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