Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has joined the 2024 race as a Democratic challenger against Joe Biden.

 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Fox News. 

Joe Biden will be facing one more Democratic challenger as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has filed paperwork to run for president. Fox News. RFK is the 2nd Democrat to enter the race after Marianne Williamson. Kennedy is an environmental lawyer but is most well known for his anti-vaccine activism. Kennedy has gained followers because of his resistance to covid-vaccines but is also against regular vaccines as well. Kennedy is also well known as being a member of the Kennedy family, one of the most powerful political dynasties in American history. 

My Comment:

I don't know if RFK has a lane or not. He does have the advantage of having the Kennedy name, but how relevant is that today? Most of the Democrats voters are young and weren't around during the JFK and RFK days while Ted Kennedy is pretty notorious even among the Democrats these days. Indeed, I think more Republicans hold the Kennedys in high esteem then Democrats now. 

Another obvious issue is that RFK is very anti-vaccine. And not in the more defensible anti-covid vaccine way, but in the far less respectable and justifiable all vaccines mode. Though I am mostly against the covid vaccines (especially now after the virus has mutated so much and the elevated risks of it the vaccine) but it's absurd to be against normal conventional vaccines. 

That being said, there are quite a few people on the left that are antivax. Indeed, before the Coronavirus pandemic the stereotype for antivaxers was a left wing person. That stereotype has indeed flipped but I don't think every antivaxer is now a Republican. 

But still, his signature issue is one that is largely irrelevant today. The pandemic is pretty much over and only a few die-hards on either side still care about the issue. And most of the fanatic pro-vaccine people (outside of Donald Trump) are on the Democrats side on this. I can't imagine that they would vote for RFK Jr. 

RFK's main problem is that he is defined by this issue. He might have reasonable or interesting policies and opinions on other topics but he is obviously going to be defined by his opposition to vaccines. I think that makes him a candidate with niche appeal. And it gives Biden a very obvious angle of attack if he even bothers to debate. 

The other question I have is how extreme the opposition to Biden is on the left. Many Democrats are in full "my party right or wrong" mode with him, despite his obvious senility and massive failures as president. Many people in the Democrat camp do want fresh blood but I don't know if they will go for anyone but Biden. 

It is possible that there could be Republicans that cross over in the primaries to vote for RFK. Though the Republicans have a contested primary, nobody thinks that Trump is going to lose, especially now after the nonsense in New York. If they felt Trump was safe they might vote in the Democratic primaries just to get someone other than Biden and that could be RFK's role, with his anti-vaccine mandate policies. 

Still, I consider RFK Jr to be an obvious long shot candidate and not someone that has a real chance of winning the candidacy, let alone the presidency. If the whole vaccine mandate was still a relevant issue he might have a chance, but I don't see that happening. 

What might be interesting is if the old school blue dog Democrats that actually do respect the Kennedys might be turned off by the attacks that will be coming to RFK. Not that there are that many of them left, most of them have been chased out of the party long before now, but the ones that remain might not be happy with the media attacking RFK as an antivax "nutjob". Time will tell how that plays out, but still, I doubt he makes it to the first primary.   

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