Russian civilians attacked in cross border raid by far right group.

 

Map of the region. BBC.

Russian civilians were attacked in a cross border raid by a far right group. BBC. The village of Lyubechane in the Bryansk region, was attacked by militants with the RVC, a group of Russian nationals that fight for Ukraine. Russia claims that the group attacked a civilian car, killing two men and injuring a boy. The militants were pushed back into Ukraine after artillery fire from the Russians. Russia has come under attack by the Ukrainians before, but that was mostly drone warfare. This was the first attack that involved militants crossing the border. Videos released by the RVC showed the leader of the group, Denis Kapustin, involved in the attack. 

⚡️Another video of these saboteurs fighting for Ukraine in Bryansk, Russia pic.twitter.com/ZfFLtoE9zQ

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 2, 2023

My Comment:

In normal circumstances this raid would not be a big deal. I am guessing dozens of attacks like this happen in Ukraine every day on both sides of the conflict. Civilians die in warfare, that's just the way warfare works. 

But the fact that it happened in Russia? That's a big deal. It's the first time that has happened since the war begun, at least in terms of actual people crossing the border and not drones. This attack is going to have a major amount of backlash, so much so that even some Ukrainians and Ukrainian supporters are saying it was not a good idea. 

Indeed, there are rumors that Russia may officially declare war on Ukraine because of this. Despite the open conflict the Russians still consider it a "special military operation" and not an actual war. If Russia does declare war they will be able to mobilize more troops and may even use strategic weapons against Ukraine. This is, of course, bad for everyone and raises the chances that the Ukraine war will spiral out of control. 

I, of course, don't believe Ukrainian claims that this was a false flag. I haven't believed a single claim the Ukrainians have made during the war, at least not until I confirm it from more neutral or pro-Russian sources. Not that the Russians are much better, but at least they never made such obviously false claims like the Ghost of Kiev or the nonsense about Snake Island. Plus, most Ukrainian sources have confirmed this attack with how scared they appear to be about the consequences. 

I know little about the group that attacked this village. They appear to be actual Nazis, given the photos I have seen, with many of the attackers having far-right tattoos. The BBC tried to downplay this, as all western media does when Nazis are shown fighting for Ukraine, but it seems very clear from what I have seen that these people are indeed Nazis. Western media can't admit this because it would be an admission that at least one of Russia's war goals, de-Nazifying Ukraine, has at least some truth to it. 

My guess is that this was an attempt to distract from the fact that they are losing and losing badly in Bakhmut. Indeed, I can't believe that they haven't withdrawn from the city already. They are losing hundreds of troops in the battle and can't seem to overcome the Russian artillery advantage. The Russian offensive against Bakhmut has been slow and grinding but it appears to be bearing fruit. 

Since Ukraine's military strategy is to convince western powers to give them further aid by accomplishing headlines as opposed to actual military success, I would not be surprised if that was the goal here. I am sure the NATO people are loving this attack on Russia. 

What really gets me is how counterproductive Ukraine's actions have been. Defending Bakhmut to the last man made very little sense and isn't something I can understand. Attacking Russia directly is the same thing, the blowback will be dramatically worse then whatever propaganda they accomplished. I really wonder what is going on with the leadership in Ukraine. I've also heard rumors that Ukraine is going to attack Transnistria in Moldova, where Russia has a presence. Such a thing would be an act of pure lunacy but it might happened given how desperate the Ukrainian government is right now.