US MQ-9 Reaper destroyed in encounter with Russian fighter jets.

 

File photo of a MQ-9 Reaper. BBC/Getty. 

An US MQ-9 Reaper has been destroyed in an encounter with Russian fighter jets. BBC. The aircraft was flying over the Black Sea when it was confronted by Two SU-27 Flankers. How the aircraft was destroyed varies depending on what country you listen to. Russia says the drone had its transponder was off and it crashed after making a sharp maneuver. The United States says that the drone was attacked by the Flankers, with them dumping fuel in front of the drone and eventually colliding with the drone. It is unclear if the Russians were attempting to destroy the drone or if they were simply harassing it. 

My Comment:

It's fairly unclear what happened here and I believe parts of both sides story. I also think that both sides are lying about what happened. Not that either side has any reason to even pretend to tell the truth. 

I don't think for a moment that this was an actual collision between an SU-27 Flanker and the Reaper drone. If such a thing were to happen I doubt that the SU-27 would have survived the collision. The MQ-9 Reaper is a large aircraft with a 66 foot wingspan. If the SU-27 had hit it there are only a few rare scenarios where I would see it surviving. 

But I do believe that the Russians were dumping fuel and harassing this drone. They are probably sick of the Americans using these drones to send intelligence to Ukraine. Harassing the drone is probably a good idea on their part though I doubt they were trying to destroy it directly. Of course I doubt they are too upset about it. 

My guess is what happened is that the Russians were harassing the Reaper and it tried to maneuver to avoid the SU-27's. Since the drone is made for reconnaissance and not combat, it crashed. The SU-27's probably got really close to it but didn't actually collide with it. 

So, is this a big deal? Maybe. The Russians have plausible deniability here as they didn't shoot down the drone directly. Did they cause it to crash? Probably, but they can at least claim that it wasn't intentional. Was it unintentional? I think so, but who knows. It's not like we can interview the pilots and see what their orders were. 

But even if it was a deliberate drowning of a drone it doesn't really mean much. Even shooting down manned fighter jets does not necessarily lead to a shooting war. Indeed, Turkey shot down a Russian jet during the Syrian conflict and it mostly lead to nothing. And when Iran shot down one of our drones during Trump's presidency, we basically didn't respond at all. Nobody died in this incident and nobody was in danger of dying in this incident other than the pilots of the SU-27's. 

With that being said, I have given up on trying to predict the actions of the Biden White House. Biden himself is senile and the people that are controlling him are, quite frankly, completely insane. I could see them doing something incredibly stupid about this. What that would involve is beyond me as they are pretty much doing everything but openly attacking Russian forces, but I am sure Biden's team will think of something.