Taiwan is preparing for a naval blockade from China

 

A Taiwanese F-16. Reuters. 

Taiwan is preparing for a total naval blockade from China. Reuters. Much of Taiwan's military budget will be going towards parts and fuel for their jets and artillery and rockets. Taiwan says that China has been conducting joint military operations that simulate a blockade. Taiwan also says that China has moved from a training regime to actual preparation for war. Taiwan are also trying to purchase US stinger missiles and HIMARS MLRS. 

My Comment:

It seems likely that a conflict between China and Taiwan is growing more likely, which means that a war between the United States and China is more likely as well. That is a conflict that there is a real chance of us losing. 

In the past I have said that conflict with China is unlikely because they do not have the transport capability to ship troops to Taiwan. That is still true and will be true for years to come. But it seems like China is moving away from that and is instead trying to totally blockade Taiwan. 

Can they do that? Not when the US Navy is out there. Which means that in any conflict with Taiwan the main goal for China will to be to destroy the US Navy. Can they do that? I think they have a decent chance of doing it. Unlike the United States China has invested massively into its navy and missiles and might even have a tech advantage. They don't have anywhere near the number of aircraft carriers that the United States has, but other than that they might have an advantage now. 

Of course they would also have to fight the military of Taiwan as well, which is reasonably formidable. And it's also possible that other regional powers, like Japan, South Korea and Australia could join the war as well. In that scenario I don't know if it is possible for China to beat all of those enemies. 

The problem is that I don't think Taiwan can depend on support from anyone. The United States is having major economic problems and is spending billions of dollars on Ukraine. The other regional powers have their own issues as well and might not want to risk a war with China. And the anti-war movement in the United States is getting stronger and I don't think there is any apatite for a war with China even if we have treaties with Taiwan. 

I also don't think Taiwan is going to get the weapons they want from the United States. We have sent so much of our weapons, including anti-air and anti-tank missiles, along with many of our more advanced artillery systems, to Ukraine so there is hardly enough for our own forces in the event of a war, let alone giving them to Taiwan. Production of those weapons is stepping up but by the time we have enough to give to Taiwan the issue is likely to be settled. 

I'm not confident about who would win a war between China and Taiwan, but I am confident that the war would be an utter disaster for everyone involved. Forget about the combat, the economy would take a massive hit as America gets most of our goods from China and Taiwan. All three economies would likely collapse and probably bring the rest of the world down with them. My sincere hope is that war can be avoided, but I also don't think that China is even on the Biden administration's radar...