New York Times admits that the situation for Ukraine is not good and that Bakhmut will fall soon.

 

A funeral for a soldier in Ukraine. New York Times. 

The New York Times has admitted that the situation for Ukraine is not good and that Bakhmut will likely fall soon. Ukrainian troops are saying they are outnumbered already, even before the troops Russia mobilized arrive to the front. Civilians are already planning on fleeing the area as Russia slowly advances in Eastern Ukraine. Everyone is expecting a major Russian offensive in the next few weeks, which may involve an envelopment that could cut of Ukrainian soldiers. Russians are also sending small units to test Ukrainian defenses across the front line. Russia has a major advantage in artillery and is starting to deploy more advanced weapons, including the T-90 tanks. Meanwhile, western supplies, including main battle tanks, are unlikely to arrive in time to affect the upcoming battle. Ukrainian troops have also taken very heavy casualties. 

The paywalled version of the New York Times article can be found here. 

My Comment:

This report is a few days old but I thought it was worth discussing. It's one of the first accounts in western media showing that it is possible that Ukraine is losing the war. And it's from the New York Times, which is about of deep state as you can get. And it is far from the only article I have seen with the same theme, many other articles from similar pro-Ukraine news outlets.

Of course the bias was still there in the New York Times report, uncritically reporting ludicrous casualty reports from the United States intelligence apparatus. There is no way Russia has suffered 200,000 casualties, even if you count casualties from the pro-Russian militias in Donbass and the Chechens that fought in Mariupol. 

Still though, I think the report was mostly accurate and it's not like casualty figures on either side is reliable. It has been clear for awhile that Russia was winning the battle of Bakhmut. The real question is why the New York Times is admitting it now. And I think the answer is that they are hedging their bets. There is a very good chance that Bakhmut gets taken in the next few weeks and it will likely be a rout. 

They are still downplaying how badly things are going in Bakhmut. Russia controls part of the city right now and they have artillery control of the ways out of the city. Any Ukrainian troops that are going to try and retreat will have to run a gauntlet of Russian artillery fire. Many of them won't make it and keep in mind this is where Ukraine has deployed many of their best troops. 

Barring some kind of incredibly collapse by Russian forces, which I find extremely unlikely, the Ukrainians are going to be defeated at Bakhmut. And it is likely they will lose before Russia actually deploys their major offensive (which, to be fair, has been expected for months now). The real question is if they can hang on afterwards. It's very possible that they cannot and we could see a collapse of Ukrainian forces. 

Keep in mind that it's largely not Russian units they are facing right now, the Ukrainians in Bakhmut have been fighting the Wagner Group mercenaries. To be fair, Wagner is a highly professional mercenary company and they are actually more experienced in urban warfare than the Russian military is. When Russia sends in their professional forces, between 200,000 and 500,000, things could change quickly. 

The real question is what happens if Russia does make a major breakthrough? In a sane world, Russia and Ukraine would then come to some kind of peace deal. However, the United States has already torpedoed peace efforts before (which is another major admission from western media you didn't see before this week). Still, it's very possible that people in the West will finally admit that it's not worth it to keep sending aid into this meat grinder. The only reason this hasn't happened already is because the media keeps acting like Russia is losing, despite anyone with even a minimal understanding of attrition warfare and industrial production seeing through it. Most people don't have that understanding which is why so many people think that Russia is losing. 

Assuming that there isn't a complete Ukrainian collapse or some kind of peace deal, what happens then? If we are lucky we will return to a status quo ante if the Russian offensive sputters out. But we also have to consider that it might spur Biden to escalate the war further, to the point of open warfare. It seems like that is what Poland wants and Biden's senile and insane enough that he might try it. That would likely start World War III and a nuclear exchange, which might happen anyways given the accusation that the US destroyed the Nordstream pipeline, which is something everyone knew but everyone was afraid to admit...