The US is pressuring Ukraine to show results or face the possibility of being cut off from supplies.

 

Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Washington Post. 

The United States is pressuring Ukraine to show results or face the possibility of cut off from support. Washington Post. So far Ukraine has largely gotten what they have asked in terms of western support, but Republicans in congress are no longer willing to write blank checks for Ukraine. Biden has also said he will back Ukraine but have warned Ukraine that funding could be cut off as soon as summer. Biden is demanding an offensive from Ukraine to show results, but there are questions how Ukraine could even launch an offensive while at the same time defending Bakhmut, a town that Ukraine has deemed critical. An attack on Crimea has been proposed but Ukraine does not seem capable of doing so. 

My Comment:

It's rare that I use the Washington Post as a source. I consider them to be a deep state mouthpiece and not journalists for the most part. They don't report the news, they tell you what the government wants you to hear. 

In this case it's actually useful as this is essentially the Biden Administration admitting that the war is not going their own way and that Ukraine has to do something to keep the flow of money and weapons going. This has of course happened before, many of Ukraine's offensives have been less about actually taking territory and beating the Russians and more about optics. 

And optics is the only way that Ukraine is winning the war and that is starting to change. People in congress are now openly questioning why we are risking World War III with Russia over Ukraine, especially since it appears that nothing is being accomplished there. With Republicans in charge of congress, there is the possibility of actual debate happening about sending even more money to Ukraine. 

An offensive that takes territory from the Russians would be about the only way to silence these voices in congress. Indeed, previous "victories" from Ukraine, did help them secure funding from congress. It doesn't matter that those victories were mostly about Russia shortening their lines so they could better prepare for offensives. 

But I honestly don't think they have much of a chance of doing so. Ukraine has lost so many troops and equipment that I don't think they have the ability to take a large amount of territory. Bakhmut was a disaster for them and they took horrendous casualties trying to defend the city. The Wagner group has now steadily advanced there and has the city essentially surrounded, with any retreat going to have to go through major artillery fire. Plus the much ballyhooed wunderwaffen's being sent to Ukraine won't be ready any time soon and the tanks and IFV's won't be ready until summer at the earliest. 

All of this is of course moot if Russia has success in their long awaited offensive. Indeed, many people think that the offensive has already begun, with many probing actions and skirmishes along the front lines. And when Bakhmut falls, the question remains where are the Ukrainians going to retreat too? Assuming they are even allowed to retreat, given the bad military situation and the fact that Ukraine seems to want to defend the city to the last man. 

As I have said before I think that the war in Ukraine has a few ways to end, and a Ukrainian victory is not one of them. In short, it will either be a major Russian victory, a negotiated settlement from a Russian position of power, or World War III breaking out. As of this post I think the 1st and 2nd options are more likely. 

The third option seemed horrifyingly likely until recently and that's why this report from the Washington Post is somewhat of a relief. If the Biden administration is admitting that the funding for Ukraine isn't unlimited and that they should abandon their defensive war and try to launch an offensive, it shows that they understand that eventually the war could end without a victory. That makes me think that they are at least partially rational and will avoid doing something even stupider than sending German tanks to Ukraine. I could be wrong about that, Biden has proven to be very unstable, but I am crossing my fingers.