NATO commander acknowledge massive losses and dwindling supplies in Ukraine conflict.

 

A Ukrainian artillery team. Business Insider/AFP/Getty.

NATO commander US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli says that the scale of the Ukraine conflict is out of proportion to what NATO is prepared for. Business Insider. Cavoli claims that Ukraine has 37 brigades along with territorial brigades while Russia is averaging 20,000 rounds of artillery a day. The war is far beyond recent NATO military engagements and raises questions about NATO's readiness for further wars. Cavoli also criticized the idea that soft power is more important than hard power, noting that military production is much more important. 

My Comment:

I normally don't use Business Insider as a source but this article seemed pretty important. General Covoli is saying things I have been saying since the start of the war. And it's being printed in a pro-Ukraine outlet. I don't think that this is an admission that Ukraine is losing the war, but it's certainly a development. 

I have always been convinced that Russia would win the war eventually and Cavoli's words are a reason why. Industrial production is what determines who wins a war and right now it's not even close when it comes to military technology. Russia has kept up their production fairly well while the west is reduced to depleting cold war stockpiles. Ukraine has essentially already gone through two armies worth of equipment, the pre-war stuff and the first wave of western arms, and are now getting a third armies worth of equipment. And I doubt there will be a fourth. 

It is also rare to see and admission of just how much in the way of artillery is being used. 20,000 rounds a day is probably a low estimate for Russian forces and is a major reason why Russia has begun to slowly advance. Ukrainian units have withered under Russian fire and simply can't match the fire they are getting. 

I also think that it's interesting that Cavoli admitted that NATO's strategy in Ukraine was to trade territory for time. I think that is pretty obviously true and I also think that it won't work again. There is still a ton of territory in Ukraine but the country simply doesn't have the number of fighters it used to. And I agree that such a strategy would not work in the Baltic states if the unthinkable happens and a war between Russia and NATO began. 

I haven't covered the war for awhile but that does not mean I haven't been paying attention to it. We are all still awaiting the supposed Russian offensive that was supposed to come this Winter. That hasn't really happened but there has been actual movement on the front. The strange thing is that it is the Wagner Group doing most of the fighting near Bakhmut. The Russian Army does not seem to be engaged all that much. I still think some kind of major offensive is coming but it's unclear where and when. 

But even without the big offensive, Russia has seen successes near Bakhmut. Given how much of Ukraine's forces were posted there, it should be a concern for Ukraine that Russia is advancing at all. They aren't even really facing the Russian Army, but the Wagner Group. I think that there are starting to be admissions, including the Business Insider article, that Russia might be on the verge of a breakthrough.