Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Yahoo News/AP.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he will meet with China's President Xi Jinping over a peace proposal to end the war with Russia. Yahoo News. China released a 12 point proposal that called for the resumption of peace talks along with ending sanctions against Russia. Zelenskyy said he would work with China if they had ideas "that correspond to international law or territorial integrity, and some security considerations.” Russia has also welcomed China's efforts, with Russia's Foreign minister saying they were willing to achieving the goals of the "special military operation" through diplomacy.
China's 12 point proposal can be found here.
My Comment:
If true this might end up being a gamechanger for the war in Ukraine. Actual peace talks could every well end the war and now is a very good time to do it. All sides invovled would get something out of ending the war as soon as possible, including the Chinese.
For Ukraine, ending the war now would probably be the best possible outcome. Russia is, very slowly, rolling back their defenses and it's very possible that they will make a breakthrough sooner or later. Russia hasn't quite launched their major offensive yet, largely due to the weather, and when that happens they will likely take a lot more territory, assuming the Ukrainian military doesn't collapse entirely. If they make a play for peace now they will do so in a much stronger position than later in the year.
For Russia ending the war now is also a good thing. Russia has largely avoided heavy casualties (comparatively) for their actual military as they have left much of the fighting to their Donbass allies, Chechen fighters and Wagner mercenaries/prison battalions. That will change during the next offensive and could leave them losing a lot of equipment and men in their regular army. Ending the war will also likely lift sanctions against them which would help their economy and get the gas flowing back to Europe.
For China brokering a peace deal would be a huge deal and would improve their reputation. And it would likely improve relations with both Russia and Ukraine and could ensure neutrality or even out and out assistance for any conflict with Taiwan. It would also humiliate their western counterparts and that is a major bonus.
Of course almost everyone would benefit from the Ukraine conflict slowing down if for no other reason that the chances of nuclear war would go down significantly. Any use of nuclear weapons, either by the Russians against Ukraine or the West against Russia, would have global consequences and would likely destroy the worlds economy, not to mention the millions of people that would die.
The only people who don't benefit from a peace deal is the western warmongers and defense contractors. They want this war to continue as they still seem to believe that Russia is only weeks away from collapse, militarily and politically. I have seen no evidence of that happening and even if it did there is no evidence that it would end well for anyone, since nuclear war would likely be the outcome.
What worries me is that the United States and NATO will again attempt to derail the peace talks, like they did near the start of the war. Zelenskyy and Putin were close to some agreement but Boris Johnson, PM of the UK at the time, torpedoed the whole thing under orders from Biden. That could obviously happen again, without Boris Johnson of course.
My hope is that some of the signs are there that the west too is getting tired of this game. Biden is facing opposition at home and abroad to the unlimited funding he is giving Ukraine. He has had difficulty getting people to provide tanks to Ukraine and the fighter jet proposal appears to be DOA. Republicans in congress are getting tired of the constant gifts to Ukraine and there is a real anti-war movement starting in both the United States and Europe. It's very possible that Biden and his handlers might be looking for an off-ramp and China could provide one for them.
Still, there is a lot of things that could go wrong here. I think the sticking point is going to be the exchange of territory. Zelenskyy is still publicly claiming that Crimea is still going to be Ukrainian, even though they have no realistic way of capturing it politically or militarily, let alone the Donbass regions that have already voted to join Russia. And Russia is not going to give up territory that they have paid a heavy price for. And I have ZERO faith in Joe Biden doing the right thing. As Barack Obama said, never underestimate Joe Biden's ability to fuck things up...
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