Ukraine says Russia has amassed 500,000 troops, 1800 tanks and 400 fighter jets and expected to launch an offensive in the next 10 days.

 

Map showing the forces Russia has built up and possible avenues for attacks. New York Post

Ukraine says that Russia has amassed a massive force to attack Ukraine and a new offensive is expected in the next 10 days. New York Post. An Ukrainian official claimed that 500,000 troops, 1800 tanks, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters have been mobilized and are getting ready to attack. Another Ukrainian official claimed on the record that Russia had 300,000 to 500,000 troops to deploy into the battle. The attack is likely to occur in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas. 

My Comment:

The defense official quoted by the original article in Foreign Policy spoke anonymously, so that is a bit of a red flag about these numbers. As always, keep in mind that anonymous sources are often unreliable at best or made up at worst. The fact that a 2nd source confirmed the number of Russian troops makes the story a bit more credible, but I also have very little trust from anyone on the Ukrainian side of this war. They have been caught lying too many times for me to trust them blindly. 

So why post this? Because I think there is at least some truth to these rumors. It's been clear for awhile now that Russia was building forces and I can't imagine that they would mobilize so many soldiers if they weren't going to use them. And I think the numbers cited here look about right for the kind of offensive that the Russians want to launch. 

What we don't know is what this offensive will look like. Russia has had good success in their attrition warfare and I am not sure that they will want to launch a huge maneuver warfare offensive. It's very possible that Russia will continue their artillery offensive which is grinding down forces in Bakhmut across a larger front. In that case, it wouldn't look like much of an offensive even though the goal would not be to occupy territory but destroy Ukrainian units instead. And once those units are destroyed or routed then they actually start to move in and take territory. That's what they did in Mariupol and it's what they are doing in Bakhmut. 

If they do decide to attack in a more traditional maneuver warfare attack the question becomes where they are going to launch it. The conventional wisdom is that it will be in the Donbass as much of their territorial claims are in that area. Doing so would check off one of their main war goals, though they would still have destroying the Ukrainian military on the list. 

Part of me thinks that the drive could instead go towards Odessa. Odessa is a major port and leaving it in Ukrainian hands post-war would ensure that Ukraine had access to naval assets and foreign support. Since their main goal is de-militarization, letting Odessa stay in Ukrainian hands seems like a bad idea. Still, the Russians haven't moved in that direction through most of the war. 

I also don't buy the timing of this attack has much to do with western tank deliveries. I think that the timetable for deliveries is ridiculously optimistic. And even if they are delivered I think the Ukraine war has proven pretty conclusively that tanks aren't the battlefield dominators they once were. Both sides of the war have taken very heavy losses in terms of tanks. I don't see why these new German, British and American tanks would be any different. 

I do think that Putin wants to end the war on a faster timetable. His opponents in the west are becoming unhinged and continue to escalate the war for very little reason. A major Ukrainian defeat would be a huge loss of credibility for the neocons currently infesting the United States and Europe. It would probably force negotiations that even Joe Biden couldn't derail this time around.