Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper says Taiwan is not ready for a war with China.

 

Chinese fighters on patrol near Taiwan. The Hill/AP.

Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has said that Taiwan is not ready for a war with China. The Hill. Esper traveled to Taiwan last summer and informed Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen what he thought they should do to prepare for a potential war with China, which considers Taiwan to be their possession. Esper recommended a major build up in weapons and supplies, increasing the military budget and increasing the length of conscription. Taiwan is not recognized as an independent country by the United States but we have committed to defending the country. Esper did note that he didn't think China was ready for a war with Taiwan either, citing the difficulty of invading the island nation. 

My Comment:

I don't know if anyone is ever prepared for a major war and I doubt that Taiwan is any exception. Taiwan does have a decent military and weapons but they are obviously outnumbered by China and I think Esper is right, they need to spend more and conscript more. 

To be fair, China isn't anywhere near ready for a full scale invasion of Taiwan either. An amphibious invasion is one of the most difficult military tasks and I just don't think that China has the civilian or military vessels to do so at this point. They still need a few years to build up those forces before they can even attempt it. 

That being said, China might not need to invade. A military blockade could accomplish most of what they want. Taiwan is a island company and its economy is extremely dependent on trade. A major blockade could bring Taiwan to their knees and force them into some kind of deal with China. 

And I think China could probably do that with the forces they have now, assuming no interference from Western powers. But that's the rub, right now I think the west, along with Japan on other Eastern powers would want to help Taiwan if they got invaded. I don't think the time is right for China to try and blockade Taiwan either. 

Still, Taiwan does need to build up their forces quite dramatically. Most specifically, they need to build up anti-ship and anti-air weapons as those will be the biggest threat by far. Again, I am not convinced that China will ever invade Taiwan directly, but they can blockade and Taiwan needs to be sure they can break that blockade. 

Unfortunately for Taiwan, the entire world is distracted by Ukraine right now and we aren't really able to help build up Taiwan as much as they need to be. So many of our weapon stocks have been diverted to Ukraine there just isn't much left to go around for Taiwan. Even purchasing weapons from other countries might be difficult given how many weapons are being sucked into the Ukraine black hole. 

I do expect a war between Taiwan and China eventually, but I think it will take some time. I think China is playing the long game and is relying on the fact that the United States power is fading dramatically. No other country in the world is happier to see us waste our weapons reserves and bankrupt our country over Ukraine, of all things. The way things are going the United States will likely no longer be the world's greatest power within a decade or so, perhaps sooner. And when that happens then I expect China to strike and Taiwan had better have built up their defenses before then...