Troops from China and India have clashed in the border region of Tawang in the Arunachal Pradesh state. BBC. At least six Indian troops and an unknown number of Chinese troops were injured in the skirmish. India claims that the Chinese troops crossed the border in the disputed region and the Indian troops responded with force. The brawl ended quickly with commanders on both sides meeting each other to reduce tensions. There have been border skirmishes between the two countries in the region before, including a 2020 incident where at least 20 Indian and at least four Chinese troops died. Efforts to reduce tensions had been successful with both sides pulling back troops from the region. It is unclear what the effects of this skirmish will be.
My Comment:
I am not expecting too much to come from this. I don't think a war between China and India is likely anytime soon. Yes, they both claim this region but as of right now I don't see either of them going to war for it. The only real thing at stake there is the national pride of each country.
Why don't I think these border clashes are serious? Because they involve fists and clubs and not rifles and tanks. Real border conflicts involve heavy weapons, not people beating on each other. And even there that doesn't always mean that a full scare war will erupt. Indeed, India and Pakistan had some recent and fairly serious border clashes and it did not result in a full scale war.
This seems more like saber rattling for the sake of saving face. Both sides make claims to this territory and neither side is willing to admit that it's not worth going to war over. Doing so would be embarrassing and would not be popular at home. So they have a little brawl in the mountains to save face.
What is interesting is if this was ordered by China or if it was just one commander doing his own thing. With China being the way that it is I can't see one of their commanders just deciding to push a border issue like this but I guess it is possible. My guess is that China did this by themselves to save face. That's assuming that you believe India's account, which, to be fair, we probably shouldn't. They just have the advantage of actually releasing a statement while China has remained mostly silent on the issue.
Much like yesterday's post about the saber rattling between Turkey and Greece, I don't expect much to come from this. Like Turkey, both India and China have bigger things to worry about. Even ignoring the elephant in the room, the economy, both sides have bigger foreign policy threats. India obviously has Pakistan and China is laser focused on Taiwan over all other things. Neither side wants an actual war with each other.
Still, these border clashes between China and India are absurd. It's crazy that two of the most powerful and populated countries in the world would send their troops to just brawl with each other. If it wasn't for the fact that people occasionally die in these skirmishes it would actually be pretty funny.
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