Ukraine admits that the war is now deadlocked.

 

Ukrainian soldiers fire a howitzer. BBC/Getty.

Ukraine's spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has admitted in a BBC interview that the war between Ukraine and Russia is now deadlocked. BBC. In earlier stages of the war the front lines were fluid but now the front lines are stagnant with most of the fighting happening in Bakhmut. Budanov dismissed reports of a possible offensive being launched from Belarus, despite multiple meetings between Putin and Lukashenko and troop movements. Despite saying that Ukraine was unable advance without new western weapons, Budanov said Ukraine would prevail in the end. 

My Comment:

The Ukrainians are being absurdly optimistic here but it is still shocking for them to admit that the war isn't going their way anymore. To see the spy chief say that the front lines are frozen and that can't really advance anymore without western weapons is not something I expected them to admit anytime soon. 

I obviously think that things are actually going quite bad for Ukraine. They are taking absolutely massive casualties and unlike Russia, who have a massive army and huge numbers of untapped reserves, they can no longer easily replace them. 

Russia seems to be fighting smarter than they were at the beginning of the war. They have finally moved against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, making the war dramatically harder to fight, which is something they should have done immediately after it was clear that the war wasn't going to be an easy victory. They are also getting better at counter battery fire with Ukrainian artillery systems getting regularly destroyed. 

Ukraine, on the other hand, is wasting thousands of troops in the battle for Bakhmut. Sure, Russia hasn't been able to take the town, but I don't even think that is their goal. Remember, Russia is playing the long game here. They don't care all that much about territory, their goal is to "de-nazify" and demilitarize Ukraine by destroying their military. For them, taking a city is not a big deal but the absolutely massive amount of casualties they are inflicting on Ukraine is a major win. 

Russia seems to be having less problems supplying their troops than Ukraine is as well. The west seems to be close to the limit of what they can supply to Ukraine as well. We are now dipping into our reserves and eventually will have to rely onto new production and I can't see how that will happen anytime soon. 

I do think that the west is extremely overconfident. They don't understand that they could lose this war. For our elites the west in Ukraine will win because no other option is believable. But they seem to forget that America lost in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and hasn't really won a war with anyone except ISIS. And with ISIS we had the help of pretty much every other nation in the world, including the Russians. 

As for me, I still think that the most likely end to the war is a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine. They are at least attempting to talk to each other and it's very possible a deal could be made. Ukraine is the sticking point though as I think Zelenskyy understands that if he makes a deal with Russia he has a good chance of getting killed, either by hard-liners in his own government by the west. 

A Russian victory is the 2nd most likely option, as I think Ukraine is probably close to collapsing. Russia is winning economically and I think eventually the west will reach a point that they can no longer supply Ukraine with weapons. And they are mobilizing reserves and may launch a major offensive from Belarus. 

As for a Ukraine victory, I can't see it happening. It would require either a total collapse of the Russian military, which is unlikely to say the least, or for NATO to deploy troops. I can't see NATO openly joining the conflict and if that did happen, I don't see how the situation doesn't devolve into nuclear war. 

I do think what is best for Ukraine at this point would be to try and get as good as negotiated settlement as they can. They are already bankrupt and every day the war continues they lose men and materials. If they were to give Russia the territory they conquered and end the war soon, they might be able to recover from the war sometime in the next couple decades. But if the war continues, even if they "win" Ukraine may never recover...