Kim Jong Un orders a major expansion to North Korea's nuclear forces.

 

Kim Jong Un at a ceremony. NBC/AFP.

Kim Jong Un has ordered a major expansion to North Korea's nuclear forces. AP. Kim wants a new ICBM and the country's first spy satellite in addition to their nuclear weapon expansion. The North Korean regime cites American "aggression" for the expansion of nuclear weapons. They also cite a military build up of South Korea as a reason to build up their military. It is expected that these new weapons will give North Korea a stronger position at any negotiations. Also on the North Koreans wish list are MIRV's, submarine launched missiles and hypersonic missiles. North Korea has been launching several missiles in multiple tests. 

My Comment:

What is sad about this is that North Korea was basically a solved problem under President Trump. Unlike Biden, Trump had a close personal relationship with Kim Jong Un and treated him with respect. Biden is, as usual, out to lunch on foreign policy and hasn't been paying much attention to North Korea. 

I don't think that this is too much of an actual threat though. North Korea's weapons are mostly defensive and an effort to prevent regime change. I can't see them ever using a nuclear first strike on South Korea or the United States, which I don't think they can hit anyways. 

North Korea knows that if they go to war with South Korea, even if the United States stays out of it, they will lose, even if they use nuclear weapons. South Korea has a much larger military and is dramatically better funded and armed. 

But North Korea can also make any war with it not worth the cost with their conventional and nuclear weapons. South Korea's capital has always been under major threat with North Korea's artillery targeting Seoul. And that's not counting North Korea's nukes which could destroy much of South Korea's cities, along with whatever US targets they could hit. 

With these new weapons, assuming they can develop them, North Korea could be able to hit the mainland United States, making them a lot more powerful. That would dramatically increase the costs of invading North Korea. 

But is North Korea even at risk of being invaded? I kinda doubt it. After all, Ukraine is sucking up pretty much all of the worlds attention and weapons. And that's not counting the tinderbox that is China and Taiwan, a war that could erupt at anytime. I just don't see North Korea being on the radar of anyone right now. 

And that is probably part of what North Korea is doing. They have long used saber rattling in an effort to get relief and aid. With nobody paying attention to them, what better way is there to get attention than developing new weapons?

Regardless, the North Koreans will probably continuing saber rattling for the foreseeable future. They may even test more nuclear weapons. I don't expect more than that but I do think they will have some success in developing new weapons.