Belarus conducts wide scale exercises near the border with Ukraine. Could they be joining the war?

 

File photo from Ukraine. US News/AP.

Belarus is conducing wide scale exercises near the border with Ukraine. Reuters. The exercises included an anti-terror operation, a snap inspection and an increase in readiness for units deployed to the border with Ukraine. The situation is serious enough that Belarus has limited some civilian travel in the area. Belarus has said they are not joining the war but have allowed Russia to use its territory to launch attacks and there is a possibility that they could indeed join the war as most of the military activity has been near the border. Belarus has a fairly small and unimpressive military but the threat of an invasion from the country has forced Ukraine to position some units near the border. 

My Comment:

I first wrote about the possibility of Belarus joining the war back in October. Most of what I said back then still applies now. Though Russia would certainly be happy with Belarus joining the war it won't be a gamechanger by any means. Compared to Ukraine and Russia, Belarus is a minor power with a small and outdated military. Without Russia's help they would lose in a war against Ukraine and do so badly. 

And despite these exercises I don't know if Belarus is joining the war or not. They have a lot of reasons to not do so and the main reason to actually invade is loyalty to Russia and not much else. They wouldn't gain territory in any war with Ukraine and they would probably lose a lot of troops if they were to invade. It's not like Belarus is swimming in money either. 

If they were to invade I would not expect them to do all that much unless there was a large amount of Russian troops to help them. Like I said, their military is pretty pathetic and without major Russian help I can't see them doing much even against Ukrainian conscripts. I doubt that Ukraine has their best troops in the region but even so I don't see Belarus having much in the way of competent fighters and equipment. 

When you come down to it though, it hardly matters if Belarus is joining the war or not. They are acting like they will be doing so and that will force Ukraine to move forces around to deal with the threat. That means that they will probably have to either take troops off of the line or end up deploying whatever reserves they have left. If it is real those troops will be caught in the fighting and if it isn't then they will be out of position when the Russian offensive actually comes. 

Ukraine can't take the risk by leaving the border undefended, if they do and Belarus does attack I bet even their army could make major progress in cutting off Ukraine's rear areas. If Belarus were to somehow make a large amount of progress they could even cut supply lines and choke off the flow of aid and weapons from the west. That's fairly unlikely but it's not outside the realm of possibility. 

As for the war itself, it appears to be in a stalemate for the moment. There does not appear to be a whole lot of movement on either side, with minor advances and retreats for both sides. I am expecting a major offensive from the Russians as soon as their newly mobilized conscripts are up to speed and deployed. And I would expect it sooner rather than later as Spring is mud season in Ukraine and any offensive would likely have to be launched before then. Whether Belarus is going to be involved in that or not is something we will find out soon enough.