Thursday, December 22, 2022

Why are weather forecasts so inaccurate?

 


As you are probably aware the midwest is in the middle of a major snow and cold event, which is terrible. Things aren't great here as we had several inches of snow along with high winds and extreme cold temperatures. We are expecting 40 mile per hour winds and heavy drifting tomorrow as well. 

But I am actually relived. Why? It was forecasted to be so much worse. Earlier in the week we were supposed to get 12 to 17 inches. Right now though? Supposedly we got 7 inches but it sure feels like it's more like 5. To be fair it's hard to tell with everything drifting, but how did they get things so wrong?

It's always like this. Everyone who lives in the midwest has a dozen stories of how the weather forecasters have said that we were going to get two feet of snow and we end up with three inches. Or the forecast is for three inches and we get two feet. It happens every winter and it's ridiculous. 

I just don't understand how they can get forecasts so bad. About all you can rely on is that they will generally get if it is going to snow or not right, but other than that it's a total crap shoot. They aren't giving accurate forecasts. 

Some of this I think is actual deception. I think the major weather players know that they get more visits to their websites if people are panicking due to the threat of snow. To be fair, I understand that completely, I hate driving in snow and it's the worst part of living in Wisconsin by far. And these companies understand that and intentionally drive up the snow total levels so people pay attention to their forecasts. 

It's especially annoying for someone like me that doesn't get to stay home from work when it gets snowy. For me it's very important to have accurate information about what storms are going to do and now I just don't get it. It's extremely annoying. 

I know that this is more of a rant than a traditional post but I am pretty annoyed with the whole thing. I also didn't have a whole lot of time tonight to get a post up as I had to clean off my cars and recharge the battery of the one I didn't use today by taking it for a short drive. I should have a more normal post up tomorrow but no promises for posts on Christmas Eve and Day as I will be spending the time with my family. 

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